006
FXUS64 KLUB 020337
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1037 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
- GENERALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY OFF THE
CAPROCK, AS TODAY'S SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST. ALONG WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS, CHILLY LOWS ARE EXPECTED, FALLING INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SW PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL
SWITCH OUT OF THE SW DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, BUT REMAIN VERY LIGHT.
NONETHELESS, HIGHS WILL RECOVER FROM TODAY, GENERALLY REACHING THE
LOW-TO-MID 70S. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND INCREASE SW SURFACE FLOW TO NEAR 20 MPH WILL
BRING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
IN SHORT, WILL BE A GREAT WEEKEND TO GET OUTDOORS!
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY MORE BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FURTHER WARM AS A
RESULT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON THE CAPROCK AND MID 90S OFF THE
CAPROCK. SOME THICKER CIRRUS MAY DEVELOP, BUT OTHERWISE NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL DIG INTO THE
ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. AS IT TRANSITIONS FROM BEING CUTOFF OVER CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TO MERGING WITH THE MAIN FLOW PATTERN, IT WILL BECOME
VERY POSITIVELY TILTED AND MUCH OF THE BEST PVA/FORCING WILL
THEREFORE BE WELL DOWNSTREAM OF ITS AXIS OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER, IF IT TRACKS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH, WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
SW MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ALONG WITH FAVORABLE UPPER/LOWER JET
DYNAMICS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA, CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CANNOT
COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT. AS OF NOW, THIS WOULD GENERALLY FAVOR THE
FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. NBM
DEWPOINTS REMAIN AROUND 40. WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL
FINALLY COMPLETELY MOVE TROUGH THE AREA BY EVENING AND SOME
LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. A RIDGE THEREAFTER LOOKS TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY INTO LATE
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR OVERCAST WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND EVENTUALLY ERODE
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AT KCDS, KLBB, AND KPVW. LIGHT SPRINKLES
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SINCAVAGE
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...09
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