701
FXUS64 KLUB 022319
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
619 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
- GRADUAL WARM UP EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN MID-WEEK, MAINLY
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
A NICE AND PLEASANT SATURDAY REMAINS ON TRACK. UPPER RIDGING HAS
FILLED IN OVER WESTERN CONUS AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY
AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. TODAY IS THE START OF
A MULTI-DAY GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
WITH HEIGHT AND THICKNESS INCREASES AS WELL AS LIGHT WESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW, CURRENT TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM TODAY TO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE, THE
REST OF TODAY WILL BE QUIET. MILD AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT, HOWEVER SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST.
SLIGHTLY WARMER TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THE UPPER
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY OVER THE REGION, HOWEVER DUE TO
SLIGHT THICKNESS INCREASES AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW,
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. A LEE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BRINGING
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
THE BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
THROUGH BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP TO BREEZY EARLY MONDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW PERSISTS OVER CENTRAL CONUS. SLIGHT THICKNESS INCREASES FROM THE
UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD AS WELL AS BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW,
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S
EXPECTED. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES, BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, AND RH VALUES AS LOW AS 13
PERCENT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL GET PUSHED EAST BY MID-WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS REMAIN IN
DISAGREEMENT ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. ECMWF SHOWS A FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION
TUESDAY WHILE GFS KEEPS THE SLOWER TRACK WITH THE FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL COOL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY,
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IF THE FRONT IS
SLOWER IN PROGRESSION, BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM GIVING WAY TO
POSSIBLE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER,
WE COULD SEE COOLER HIGHS AND A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT IF THE FRONT IS
QUICKER IN PROGRESSION AND PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.
ON THE UPPER LEVELS, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
SHIFTING WINDS ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST USHERING IN SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TO THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVELS. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE, AN UPPER JET ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH WILL
PASS OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURN MID-WEEK DUE TO FORCING FROM THE FRONT, UPPER LEVEL FORCING
FROM THE PASSING JET, AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. HOWEVER, THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE KEEPING THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH
OF OUR CWA. ANOTHER PASSING UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PROLONG
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY, MAINLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO WARM UP AND
DRY OUT AGAIN AS MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE IN OVER BAJA
MEXICO THURSDAY AND REMAIN STAGNANT OVER THE WEEKEND KEEPING FLOW
ALOFT MOSTLY ZONAL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE SW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
VFR WILL CONTINUE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...19
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