235
FXUS64 KLUB 030355
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1055 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
- SLIGHTLY BREEZIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK AND ROLLING PLAINS.
- THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS, WITH A CLOSED, POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A NORTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALSO DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL CANADA. AT THE SURFACE, A
WEAK ANTICYCLONE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE TX HILL COUNTY, WITH A GENTLE,
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE INTACT AREA-WIDE. ALTHOUGH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AS IT SHIFTS OVER THE CWA SUNDAY, A
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE APEX OF THE RIDGE AND
GENERATE A LEE CYCLONE IN SOUTHEASTERN CO. LEEWARD PRESSURE FALLS
WILL STEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
BEGINS TO SHARPEN, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25 MPH
(INCLUDING GUSTS) AREA-WIDE SUNDAY. THE EFFECTS OF ADIABATIC
COMPRESSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH WILL AID IN
WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
CAPROCK, AND INTO THE LOWER-MIDDLE 80S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. AS THE
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PROPAGATES OVER THE CWA BY SOLAR NOON, THICKENING
BANDS OF CIRRUS WILL ALSO ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL AFFECT
RH REDUCTIONS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER. THEREFORE, ONLY LOCALLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN TX PH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE FUELS REMAIN VERY DRY
AMIDST RH VALUES FALLING TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. LEEWARD PRESSURE FALLS
WILL REMAIN INTACT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE YIELDING MUCH WARMER LOWS COMPARED TO PRIOR MORNINGS.
SINCAVAGE
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD
MONDAY, AS THE POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH TO THE WEST BEGINS TO OPEN
AND PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN-STREAM TROUGHING. THE SURFACE TROUGH
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED ALONG AND WEST OF THE NM STATE LINE IS FORECAST
TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY WHILE TRANSITIONING INTO
A DRYLINE. VERY WARM TO EVEN HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO EVOLVE AS WINDS SHIFT WESTWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DRYLINE
DESPITE A RATHER THICK CIRRUS SHIELD ALOFT. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF
THE CAPROCK AND ROLLING PLAINS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS FROM
YOAKUM COUNTY EASTWARD INTO STONEWALL COUNTY DUE TO THE RECENT BOUT
OF RAINFALL. DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED AS BOUNDARY-LAYER DEPTHS ASCEND
INTO THE MID-LEVELS TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE, WHICH WILL YIELD RH
REDUCTIONS INTO THE LOWER TEENS IN THE DRY SECTOR.
THE ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAKING EVENT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN WILL NEAR ITS COMPLETION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH THE
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH PIVOTING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN-STREAM JETLET NOSING SOUTHWARD OVER THE
GREAT BASIN. A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PROGRESS TOWARDS THE
CWA IN CONGRUENCE WITH THE MERIDIONAL JETLET, WITH THE FRONT
POTENTIALLY STALLING ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE CIRRUS
SHIELD WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN DUE TO THE BELT OF VIGOROUS AND
MOIST, ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONFINED WITHIN THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL THETA
SURFACES. NBM POPS WERE QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INITIALIZATION
THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES, BUT WERE CAPPED AT 20
PERCENT, AS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED AS THE FRONT
LOSES ITS ANAFRONTAL PROPERTIES AMIDST VERY WEAK CAPE FOR ELEVATED
PARCELS. THE DRY SLOT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR, WITH
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH W TX WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST BY THE TAIL-END
OF THE WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW WOBBLING OVER THE SONORAN DESERT.
SINCAVAGE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE SW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
VFR WILL CONTINUE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...19
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