950
FXUS64 KLUB 032321
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE CAPROCK AND ROLLING PLAINS.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
- SLIGHTLY BREEZIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE RELATIVELY PLEASANT AND QUIET. A SURFACE
LOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO HAS INCREASED SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS TO
AVERAGE 20 MPH SUSTAINED ACROSS THE FA AND SHOULD HOLD THROUGH
SUNSET BEFORE WINDS SLIGHTLY DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH. THESE WINDS
WILL HELP TO KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 50S AREA WIDE. THE SURFACE
LOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTHWARD MONDAY AS
AN UPPER LOW PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS CANADA, PUSHING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME,
THE UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO MOVE OVERHEAD
AND HELP TO INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE AND MORESO OUT OF THE
WEST. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER MONDAY MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK. WHILE A
RFW IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED, A RFD WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY
LATE TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING WASHED AWAY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD HELP COOL HIGHS INTO THE LOW 80S AND LOW 90S. WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN DOMINATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALSO HELP
TO CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL PUSH OUT ONE MORE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY, KEEPING HIGHS ON
THURSDAY IN THE 70S AND 80S. THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS
WAY OVER THE REGION BY LATE WEEK WITH MODELS IN CONSENSUS WITH THE
REGION SEEING SOME RAINFALL. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH, TILT, AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND IS MUCH TOO
EARLY TO GET EXCITED OVER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
BREEZY SSW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND SPEED SHEAR AT KCDS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL SITES BY LATE MONDAY MORNING,
WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY TO 30 KTS. VFR WILL CONTINUE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...19
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