660
FXUS64 KLUB 041114
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
614 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
MOST OF THE CAPROCK AND ROLLING PLAINS.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE QUICK TO EXIT THE FORECAST AREA.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS EVENING DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED SPLIT-FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE U.S., WITH A DEAMPLIFIED, SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SHIFTING EAST TOWARDS THE CWA THAT IS AHEAD OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY A CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE CA. FARTHER NORTH, AN
INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE DUE TO AN ANTICYCLONICALLY-BREAKING WAVE EVENT OVER THE
POLAR LATITUDES, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN THE PHASING OF THE
SPLIT-FLOW BY THE TAIL-END OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO THE WEST BEGINS TO PIVOT INLAND. AT THE SURFACE, LEEWARD
PRESSURE FALLS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AS A TROUGHING BOUNDARY LOCATED
WEST OF THE EDGE OF THE MESCALERO ESCARPMENT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
SHARPEN. THE SURFACE TROUGH CONNECTS TO A WEAK CYCLONE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT NEAR ULS, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AREA-WIDE MONDAY MORNING.
AFTER SUNRISE, THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD
INTO AND ACROSS W TX WHILE TRANSITIONING INTO A DRYLINE AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT DEAMPLIFIES. WINDS WILL TRANSITION TOWARDS
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE DRYLINE BENEATH A THICKENING CIRRUS
SHIELD ALOFT, WITH DEEP MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER EXPECTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA. DESPITE THE HIGH-LEVEL OVERCAST, TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO MIDDLE-UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-27 CORRIDOR, AND INTO THE LOWER-MIDDLE 90S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS,
AS THE EFFECTS OF COMPRESSIONAL WARMING FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE ARE MAXIMIZED. DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED FROM THE NBM FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, AS SUPERADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO EVOLVE
WITHIN THE SURFACE-TO-3-KM LAYER. SUCH LAPSE RATES WERE OBSERVED BY
THE 04/00Z RAOB FROM WFO AMA, ALONG WITH UPSTREAM RAOBS SAMPLING
LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 9.3-9.6 DEG C/KM AT ABQ AND EPZ, WITH A SMALL
WARM NOSE/CAP OBSERVED NEAR 600 MB.
THE VERY WARM TO EVEN HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH THE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING, WILL YIELD
RH REDUCTIONS INTO THE LOWER-MIDDLE TEENS BY PEAK HEATING. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF
THE CAPROCK AND ROLLING PLAINS, WITH NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS LOCALES WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE IN EFFECT BETWEEN 2-9 PM CDT
MONDAY FOR THOSE AREAS. AS THE DRYLINE PROPAGATES INTO THE ROLLING
PLAINS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, HIGH-BASED CU WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE CIRCULATION AS MOIST, ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES WITHIN
THE BELT OF INTENSIFYING MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY, WITH MODEST, MID-LEVEL COOLING
CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 750-1,000 J/KG. THE WELL-MIXED
SUB-CLOUD LAYER WOULD RESULT IN ANY ESTABLISHED STORMS TO POSE A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR A ROGUE WIND GUST >50 MPH BEFORE EXITING THE CWA AS
THE DRYLINE SLOSHES NEAR OR EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (20-PERCENT) HAVE BEEN MANUALLY DELINEATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS FOR THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY. THE
DRYLINE WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR OR EAST OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT,
LEADING TO POOR RH RECOVERY, WITH THE WESTERLY BREEZE RESULTING IN
WARM TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE TUESDAY MORNING.
SINCAVAGE
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
THE PHASING OF THE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WILL BE
WELL UNDERWAY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE POSITIVELY-TITLED TROUGH
PIVOTING ONSHORE SOUTHERN CA AS THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
TROUGH OPENS. THE LARGE-SCALE WAVE BREAKING EVENT WILL NEAR ITS
COMPLETION TUESDAY, WITH THE NORTHERN-STREAM JET STREAK DIVING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND MAINTAINING THE
CORRIDOR OF SUBGEOSTROPHIC FLOW THROUGH INFLECTION POINT OF THE
TROUGH AS IT EJECTS EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOIST,
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE RATHER INTENSE WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS, BUT
WITH THETA-E WARMING WITH HEIGHT, THE EML WILL ERODE ALL BUT
ENTIRELY OVER THE CWA. MEANWHILE, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SPAWNED
FROM THE NORTHERN-STREAM TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS ALL AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE STALLING FRONT. LOW STRATUS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT, WITH LFCS BECOMING ELEVATED AND NO WAY TO LIFT PARCELS MOIST
ADIABATICALLY. THEREFORE, A DRY FORECAST IS NOW REFLECTED ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN TX PH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE CAPROCK
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY, LEADING TO MINIMUM RH VALUES NEAR 20 PERCENT
ACROSS THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS AMIDST BREEZY, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AND IT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY LOSE ITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND PERHAPS
TRANSITION INTO A DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH AS LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS
MAINTAINED ALONG THE REMNANT BOUNDARY. THIS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
THE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH RESPECT TO
WHETHER OR NOT WINDS REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY OR VEERED TOWARDS THE
EAST. THE PHASED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS LATE-DAY WEDNESDAY, WITH A STRONG, SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW STRATUS MAY
DEVELOP POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND/OR
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PH. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT CDT THURSDAY
(07/05Z), BUT THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL NEED REFINEMENT OVER THE
FORTHCOMING FORECAST PACKAGES. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW INTO
THURSDAY, WITH DRY AND WARMER WEATHER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SINCAVAGE
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
ALTHOUGH VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WINDS WILL BECOME
STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AND LASTING
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...01
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