580
FXUS64 KLUB 041737
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1237 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE SW
TX PANHANDLE.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAINING NEAR ZERO INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF
A CUTOFF LOW OVER CA AND A DEEPER UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ABOVE ABOUT 600MB IS CONTRIBUTING TO QUITE A BIT
OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. AT THE SURFACE, A ~995MB SURFACE LOW WILL STEADILY TRANSIT
EASTWARD OVER THE TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO NW OK BY THIS
EVENING, RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF RELATIVELY STRONG WSW
BREEZES AND ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO VERY WARM HIGHS TODAY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A DIFFUSE DRYLINE WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE OVER
THE SE TX PANHANDLE AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME VERY MODEST SURFACE CONFLUENCE AND A
SMALL DISTURBANCE BENEATH THE RIDGE ALOFT SUPPORTING A BRIEF
WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IN THE CHILDRESS VICINITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH A DEEP AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER
COULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS,
THIS THREAT WILL BE BRIEF WITH ANY STORM ACTIVITY QUICKLY EXITING
TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING. TONIGHT, WEST WINDS WILL STAY RELATIVELY
BREEZY AS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION,
WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A DRY AND VERY MILD OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
ON TUESDAY, THE ABOVE-MENTIONED CUTOFF LOW OVER CA WILL BEGIN TO
PHASE WITH THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CANADIAN LOW, RESULTING IN A SHIFT TO STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND MODEST HEIGHT FALLS OVER OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE TWO COMPETING
SURFACE FEATURES IN OUR VICINITY TUESDAY: FIRST, A SLOW-MOVING
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGGED TO DRIFT INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES,
AND SECOND, A RELATIVELY STRONG LEE SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN NM WHICH WILL BRING STRONG WESTERLY BREEZES TO MOST OF THE
CAPROCK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY WARM AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED TO
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE DANGER OVER THE CAPROCK AND SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS OVER THE SE TX PANHANDLE.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER ABUNDANT, BUT A
DRY FORECAST IS FAVORED ON TUESDAY GIVEN A LACK OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND VERY DRY LOW LEVELS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
BY MIDWEEK, A LARGE-AMPLITDE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS
PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL GET A REINFORCING BOOST ON
WEDNESDAY AS A ~1020MB SURFACE HIGH DESCENDS SOUTHWARD OVER
EASTERN CO. OUR CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR DRY WESTERLIES TO
PERSIST OVER THE CAPROCK THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH FROPA LIKELY OCCURRING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS RESULTS IN QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S CURRENTLY FAVORED OVER NORTHERN ZONES AND HIGHS NEAR 80
FARTHER SOUTH, BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE REVISED DOWNWARD IF
FRONTAL PROGRESSION IS FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED. SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS DEPICT A FAIR BIT OF LOW CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE WHERE SOME VERY MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER, BETTER LIFT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH, SO MEASURABLE RAINFALL
APPEARS UNLIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GUSTY POST-FRONTAL NORTH WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WEAKEN AND
BECOME MUCH LIGHTER BY THURSDAY MORNING AS COOL SURFACE RIDGING
MOVES OVERHEAD. CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT ON
THURSDAY WITH MORNING LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S. THERE COULD
EVEN BE A LIGHT FREEZE OVER THE SW TX PANHANDLE, BUT LOW CLOUD COVER
SHOULD MITIGATE THE THREAT FOR A LARGER FREEZE OVERALL. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE 70S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS RETURN TO A MORE SSW DIRECTION. MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MAKE A COMEBACK FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW PERSISTS ALONG WITH MODEST MIDLEVEL
HEIGHT RISES. WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST, THE PATTERN WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES AROUND 15-25G35KT TO CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE
EVENING, BEFORE CALMING TO AROUND 10-15KT OVERNIGHT.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...12
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