070
FXUS64 KLUB 051728
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1228 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER EXPECTED THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A LIGHT FREEZE/FROST ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
MODERATE TO BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS MUCH THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS NEW MEXICO ARE
EXPECTED TO RAMP UP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A LEE
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THESE BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BLEED OVER THE BORDER AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CAPROCK RESULTING IN THE COLD FRONT RETREATING. MODELS
INDICATE THE FRONT WILL STALL AT A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTATION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL
ROLLING PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE MAXT GRADIENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE TO LOWER 90S OVER SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK WITH BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND RH VALUES DROPPING TO UPPER TEENS. A
RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM 2 PM
UNTIL 8 PM TODAY.
AS THE BREEZY WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING, THE FRONT WILL
PUSH BACK ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD BE A QUIET NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. AS THE FRONT
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION, A LOW STRATUS LAYER WILL FILL IN OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. THESE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SHOULD
CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A
SIMILAR SET UP AS TODAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE OVER THE
ROCKIES TRIGGERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO RESULTING IN BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BACKTRACK TO A
SIMILAR PLACEMENT AS TODAY, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A LARGE
MAXT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW ACROSS THE CAPROCK WITH BREEZY WINDS AND
RH VALUES DECREASING TO THE LOWER TEENS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NM/TX
BORDER.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BREEZY WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET RESULTING IN THE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD
FRONT TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. BREEZY NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FILL IN ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO UPPER 40S OVER SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS. AS RH VALUES RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT AND TEMPERATURES
COOLING TO AROUND FREEZING, FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
KEEPING COOLER TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE COOLER TEMPERATURES DO NOT
LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A PASSING SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE LOW WHICH WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO
THE SOUTH THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL WARM TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S AND 90S FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH SOME AREAS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
POSSIBLY SEEING TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS SATURDAY. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HOT
TEMPERATURES, WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS INDICATE A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
COOLING TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH NOT BY
MUCH. OTHERWISE, THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION IN SIGHT FOR THE LONG
TERM FORECAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
A COMPLICATED SURFACE PATTERN RESULTS IN LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. IN
GENERAL, NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AT KPVW AND KCDS. AT KLBB, INITIALLY
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT EXACTLY WHEN IS UNCERTAIN. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS WESTWARD. MVFR CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY AT KPVW AND KCDS, WITH VFR
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KLBB THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...30
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