518
FXUS64 KLUB 130432
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1132 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1129 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY AND
THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
- HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR
TRIPLE-DIGITS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THE FRONT MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
BY SUNRISE, BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE ANY FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE
IT IS ERODED. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD TODAY AND
WILL HELP TO WARM HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST AFTER SUNSET. MODELS
HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE
UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD AND A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE LOCATION OF A
SURFACE LOW AND WOULD PROVIDE MARGINAL SURFACE CONVERGENCE. WHILE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION IS ALSO
NOT EXPECTED, BUT A 60 MPH GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
CONVECTION WILL NOT LAST LONG BEYOND SUNSET AS SURFACE HEATING IS
LOST. THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE BREEZY THANKS TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE SURFACE LOW, AND THIS IN TURN WILL HELP KEEP THURSDAY MORNING
LOWS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE EAST OF THE FA BY THURSDAY WITH UPPER FLOW
BEING MOSTLY ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH FRIDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD, BUT STILL SCATTERED AT BEST, CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRYLINE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION JUST AS AN
EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. CONVECTION WOULD
LIKELY BE ELEVATED AT BEST AS HOT TEMPS, LOW TO MID 100S, AND LOW
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED. THIS WOULD BE PRIME CONDITIONS FOR VIRGA.
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL AMPLIFY THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL KEEP UPPER FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
WHILE CHANCES ARE LOW, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EACH DAY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS IF ENOUGH SURFACE
MOISTURE CAN BE ATTAINED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...19
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