084
FXUS64 KLUB 132332
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
632 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 632 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
- HOT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
- HOT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- VERY HOT THIS WEEKEND WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES.
AT THE SURFACE, WE WILL SEE A WEAK DRYLINE DIVIDING THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND SOUTH PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL EXIST FARTHER EAST FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO NORTH TEXAS. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GARNER A
HIGH-BASED CU FIELD. THE GREATEST DEPTH TO THIS CU FIELD WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE GREATEST LOW
LEVEL THETA-E AIR WILL BE LOCATED CLOSER TO THE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT A MODEST INCREASE IN THESE VALUES IS FORECAST
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS EAST OF THE DRYLINE. VERY DEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING INSTABILITY
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER, SOME CAPPING WILL
STILL EXIST WITHIN THIS LAYER, SO ANY CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY BE
VERY ISOLATED. STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT
WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS.
NEARLY A REPEAT CAN BE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT OVER A
WIDER AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL BACK MORE TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH.
ADDITIONALLY, WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL WINDS AS A JET
STREAK APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS JET STREAK WILL PRIMARILY BE TOO
FAR TO THE SOUTH TO BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE ASCENT BUT THE
INCREASE IN WINDS ALONE WILL BRING AT LEAST SOME VERY WEAK LIFT.
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN LEAD TO A HIGH BASED CU FIELD BUT
WITH LESS INSTABILITY AND CONTINUED WEAK CAP IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH, THE
INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE SPREAD OUT OVER THE ENTIRE WEST TEXAS
REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE ABOVE CONDITIONS BRINGING PRIMARILY DOWNBURST
WINDS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
THICKNESS VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE WEEKEND BRINGING
NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. A
STRONGER DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP BOTH OF THESE AFTERNOONS BUT WILL
LIKELY BE LOCATED TOO FAR EAST FOR ANY CONVECTION IN THE FA. A
DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS. STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY BUT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL TURN COOLER AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH SOMETIME FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
VFR PREVAILS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. SLIGHTLY BREEZY WINDS THAT ARE
ONGOING AT KCDS, KLBB, AND KPVW, WILL DIMINISH DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS THURSDAY. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME BREEZY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED-TO-WIDELY-SCATTERED TSTMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT IT IS
UNCLEAR IF TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS. THEREFORE, THE TAFS
HAVE BEEN KEPT CLEAN OF ANY TSTM MENTION WITH THIS CYCLE.
SINCAVAGE
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ021>024-027>029.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...09
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page