539
FXUS64 KLUB 140531
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1231 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1229 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CAPROCK AND ROLLING PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HOT AND BREEZY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE STORM CHANCES ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
02Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED DIRECTLY
OVER THE CWA, WITH A BIFURCATED JET STREAM THAT PHASES OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. TO THE WEST, A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WAS DIGGING INTO THE PALOUSE HILLS AND SELKIRK MOUNTAINS, WITH THE
SOUTHERN-STREAM TROUGH, WHICH WAS MORE-BROAD AND POSITIVELY-TILTED,
MEANDERING OFFSHORE CA. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS SINCE
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CHAIN OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE SOUTHERN-STREAM 250 MB JET STREAK, ANALYZED NEAR 70 KT
BY THE 14/00Z UA CHARTS, NOSING INTO THE SEA OF CORTEZ. THE 14/00Z
RAOBS UPSTREAM OF THE CWA (I.E., ABQ, EPZ, AND MMCU) SAMPLED THE
PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE QUITE WELL, WITH HIGH HUMIDITY ABOVE 500
MB AT ALL THREE SITES. STRONG, MIXED-LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION WAS
OBSERVED BENEATH THE CLOUD BASE AT THOSE RAOB SITES, WITH SIMILAR
BOUNDARY-LAYER PROFILES THAT WERE ALSO OBSERVED BY THE 14/00Z RAOBS
FROM WFOS AMA AND MAF. THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE MEAN TROUGHING TO
THE WEST OF THE CWA WILL CAUSE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL COMMENCE
BY DAWN THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION.
AT THE SURFACE, A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TX PH BEFORE BENDING
NORTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN CO. A LEE CYCLONE WAS LOCATED NEAR ELP,
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH BRANCHING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW AND
CONNECTING TO A WEAK CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STALLED FRONT
NEAR DHT PER RECENT WTM DATA. BROAD RETURN FLOW WAS UNDERWAY ACROSS
THE CWA, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS EVIDENT ON WTM DATA AMIDST DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM 30 DEGREES NEAR THE NM STATE LINE TO ABOVE 50 DEGREES
IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN, THE LATTER OF WHICH IS A
DEMARCATION OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. RAPID MOISTURE RETURN
WILL OCCUR BY THE PREDAWN HOURS THURSDAY DESPITE WINDS VEERING AS
THE LEE CYCLONE NEAR ELP ROTATES NORTHEASTWARD. AS THE GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHT FALLS ENSUE, THE TRANCHE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE LEE CYCLONE WILL TRANSITION INTO A DRYLINE AND
BEGIN PROPAGATING EASTWARD AFTER SUNRISE DUE TO THE NET INCREASE IN
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. MEANWHILE, THE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT WILL ALSO UNDERGO WARM-FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO WEST-CENTRAL OK, ALLOWING THE DRYLINE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY AREA-WIDE IN RESPONSE TO LARGE-SCALE PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING
TO 15-25 MPH ON THE CAPROCK WHILE BACKING TO THE SOUTH AT 20-30 MPH
IN THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCALLY ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ON THE CAPROCK.
SCATTERED, HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN NM AND ADVECT INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON, PERHAPS AS EARLY
AS 20Z, IN CONGRUENCE WITH THE EASTWARD MIXING DRYLINE. THE STRONG
THETA-E ADVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN THE MIXED-LAYER BY THE RAOBS
FARTHER WEST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WILL TRANSLATE INTO MODEST CAPE
AS THE MID-LEVELS COOL FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE. SBCAPE
AND MUCAPE PARCEL TRAJECTORIES WILL BECOME ALIGNED OWING TO INTENSE
SURFACE HEATING AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE 90S ON THE
CAPROCK TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE ROLLING PLAINS, WITH MIXING
HEIGHTS ASCENDING TO NEAR 600 MB (LCL/LFC LEVEL). MID-LEVEL FLOW
WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG, BUT THE EMERGENCE OF THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE 250 MB JET STREAK CURRENTLY NOSING INTO THE SEA OF
CORTEZ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE ELONGATION OF HODOGRAPHS, LEADING TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOOSELY-ORGANIZED BANDS/CLUSTERS OF HIGH-BASED,
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORMS. CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
50 KT AS THE 250 MB JET STREAK ARRIVES, WHICH WILL WARRANT A RISK
FOR SEVERE-CALIBER WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH WITH STORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THETA DEFICITS GENERATED BY SEVERE-CALIBER
OUTFLOW MAY PRODUCE A LOCALIZED HABOOB EVENT, ESPECIALLY WITH THE
WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS W TX. BRIEF DOWNPOURS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS, AND THE FOOTPRINT OF WETTING
RAINFALL WILL BE LOCALIZED DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS OF
EVAPORATIVE (WET-BULB) COOLING BENEATH CLOUD BASE. POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED FROM THE DRY NBM TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THINKING, WITH STORM
CHANCES WANING AFTER DARK AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLES. WARM
LOWS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE.
SINCAVAGE
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH LITTLE
CHANGE NECESSITATED FOR THIS CYCLE. SLIGHTLY POSITIVE GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHT TENDENCIES AND DRY, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES RISING UP TO AND ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE CWA
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY
WILL BE CONTINGENT ON THE FOOTPRINT OF RAINFALL THE PREVIOUS DAY,
BUT BREEZY WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL WARRANT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THE GROWTH AND SPREAD OF FIRES ON THE CAPROCK. HIGHS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY HOTTER SATURDAY, WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON; AND HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY-LEVEL
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. LARGE-SCALE PRESSURE FALLS WILL STEEPEN
SUNDAY ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH PIVOTS OVER
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, WITH BREEZY WINDS FORECAST AS THE DRYLINE
STALLS IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. STORM CHANCES MAY CLIP THE
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS, BUT THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED AS
STORMS WOULD MOVE OFF QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AND ADVECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. AS OF NOW, LOW POPS ARE PRESENT ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
NEEDED IN FORTHCOMING FORECAST CYCLES.
SINCAVAGE
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
VFR AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD. SCATTERED HIGH-BASED TS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS
TO THE TERMINALS AFTER ABOUT 20Z.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...30
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