593
FXUS64 KLUB 151713
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1213 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO EVOLVE ACROSS
THE CAPROCK AND MOST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
- HOT AND BREEZY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, WITH STORM
CHANCES IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND AN AREA-WIDE FIRE DANGER EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
A NEAR REPEAT OF THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE FROM THE PAST TWO DAYS CAN
AGAIN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES. THESE
MINOR DIFFERENCES ARE ALREADY EVIDENT WITH LIGHTNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. A MORE SIZABLE AMOUNT OF
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE PRESENT OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. A NUMBER
OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW TODAY
OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THERE WAS A MIX OF LIFT AND
SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAD TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE AREA HAVING GREATER THUNDER CHANCES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WAS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THE JET STREAK WILL
PRIMARILY BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION, WE WILL BE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS 90KT JET STREAK. THE SURFACE DRYLINE
WILL MIX EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH A WEAK DEW POINT GRADIENT.
FURTHERMORE, THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS FEATURE.
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN WE HAVE OBSERVED THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WELL MIXED AGAIN UNDER HOT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS. PARCELS
WITHIN THIS DEEP MIXED LAYER MAY HAVE AS MUCH AS 500 J/KG OF CAPE TO
WORK WITH THIS AFTERNOON. THE END RESULT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THIS CONVECTION GENERATING SCATTERED HABOOBS AND
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS. DEEPER MOISTURE WITH A LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS
WILL EXIST EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. ANY
STORMS THAT CAN SUSTAIN THEMSELVES THAT FAR WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 100 DEGREES ON
THE CAPROCK TODAY WITH LOWER 100S OFF THE CAPROCK OR NEAR RECORD
VALUES.
NEAR RECORD VALUES WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE DRYLINE SHARPENS
UP AND MIXES OFF THE CAPROCK. BACKGROUND ASCENT WILL BE LACKING ON
SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL AGAIN BE DEEPLY MIXED.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH HIGHER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WITHIN THE DEEPER MOISTURE. MUCH
OF THE REGION WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE CAPPED ON SATURDAY
BUT THERE MAY EXIST A NARROW ZONE WITH A WEAKER CAP WHERE A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO INITIATE. FORECAST INSTABILITIES ARE
IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WITHIN THIS NARROW ZONE OF WEAKER CAPPING.
HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE DIFFICULT WITH THE LACK OF
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
DRYLINE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY BREAK IN THE HEAT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
DEEPENING TROUGH WILL BRING US A TYPICAL SLOSHING DRYLINE PATTERN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST MONDAY. STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL EMERGE EACH AFTERNOON. BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE VERY DRY AIR AND BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE CAPROCK. MUCH STRONGER MOISTURE AND SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST OFF THE CAPROCK DURING THIS SAME TIME
PERIOD. THIS TROUGH WILL GENERALLY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING US ANY
APPRECIABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT SO ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO RELY
ON LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE DRYLINE. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN EJECTING THIS WESTERN CONUS TROUGH FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING PROVIDING A BREAK FROM THE NEAR RECORD HEAT THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH EARLY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY. HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE NM/TX BORDER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH
THE EVENING. THERE IS A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM. WINDS OF 70+ MPH AND BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE VICINITY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS. ALL STORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR KPVW AND KLBB JUST AFTER SUNSET AND KCDS BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>037-
039>043.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR TXZ021>037-039>043.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...10
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