357
FXUS64 KLUB 161107
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
607 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 606 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- UNSEASONABLY HOT AND BREEZY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH CRITICAL FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION.
- A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND SE TX PANHANDLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY, BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
- COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS MOSTLY ZONAL OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AS OF LATE
FRIDAY EVENING, WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO BACK SLIGHTLY TO A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION OVER WEST TX THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OVERALL, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE CONTINUATION OF
UNSEASONABLY HOT WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF RETURN
OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
DEEP DIURNAL MIXING AND SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DRYLINE WHICH WILL MIX TO JUST EAST
OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED OVER AREAS ON THE CAPROCK
WITH DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. OFF THE CAPROCK AND TO THE
EAST OF THE DRYLINE, HIGHS WILL SOAR INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE
RANGE, BUT SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH WILL KEEP
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY ABOVE 40 DEGREES. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
RAINFALL RECEIVED FRIDAY EVENING WILL HELP MITIGATE THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT SOMEWHAT OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. OTHERWISE, THE
DRYLINE CIRCULATION ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WEAK THROUGH
MOST OF SATURDAY, WHICH COMBINED WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A
RELATIVELY ROBUST CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY LOW. EVEN SO, SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE
A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME
ANY INHIBITION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, ANY STORMS WOULD BE ISOLATED
AT BEST AND CONFINED TO SE TX PANHANDLE AND EASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS, BUT COULD BE SEVERE GIVEN PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY AND MODEST
BULK SHEAR. A DRY, MILD, AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS THEN
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND 70S HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE INITIALLY
OVER THE PACNW REGION WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN, IN
TURN DEEPENING A BROAD REGION OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. DESPITE THIS EVOLUTION, FLOW ALOFT OVER
WEST TX WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY
LITTLE CHANGE IN OUR DAY-TO-DAY WEATHER LOCALLY. UNSEASONABLY HOT
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE, WITH CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER EXPECTED TO THE WEST OF A DRYLINE WHICH WILL MIX JUST EAST OF
THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY, MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MAY DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN LIMITED IN COVERAGE DUE TO THE WEAK DRYLINE CIRCULATION
IN ADDITION TO ONLY MODEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING. HOWEVER, ANY STORM
WHICH DEVELOPS EITHER SUNDAY OR MONDAY COULD EASILY BECOME SEVERE
GIVEN LARGE MLCAPE VALUES AND SLIGHTLY IMPROVED BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES.
OUR STRETCH OF VERY HOT WEATHER WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END ON
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION, WITH
PLEASANTLY MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS COOL SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN OF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS POST-
FRONTAL MOIST EASTERLY FLOW POTENTIALLY INTERACTS FAVORABLY WITH
SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL ASCENT, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM HEADING INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EACH DAY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF
UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN
HAZARDS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING THE TERMINAL WILL BE
LIGHTNING AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ021>037-039>043.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...51
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page