204
FXUS64 KLUB 161948
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
248 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 248 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- A CRITICAL FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, AND SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON, IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.
- ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS, WITH
MORE STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, A BROAD, POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WAS
PIVOTING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S., WITH A QUASI-ZONAL 250 MB JET
STREAK ANALYZED AT NEARLY 100 KT TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
AND INTO CENTRAL TX. MOIST, ISENTROPIC ASCENT WAS SCANT OVER THE
CWA, WITH PREDOMINANTLY LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK AS THE POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
LAGS BEHIND. MID-LEVEL FLOW WAS WEAK, WITH 30 KT AND 10 KT OF FLOW
SAMPLED BY THE 12Z RAOBS FROM WFOS MAF AND OUN, RESPECTIVELY, WHICH
MATCHES CURRENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE BROAD TROUGHING TO THE WEST
IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS A SERIES OF INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DIG SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH A CLOSED LOW FORECAST
TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE TONIGHT. THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THE MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL ALSO INDUCE A NET
INCREASE IN CONCAVITY OF THE SOUTHERN-STREAM JETLET AND RESULT IN A
PHASING OF THE LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AT THE SURFACE, A LEE CYCLONE WAS LOCATED NEAR GUY, WITH THE DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS BETWEEN THE HWY-72 AND
HWY-83 CORRIDORS. WINDS WERE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE DRYLINE WHILE
TRANSITIONING TOWARDS THE SOUTH ACROSS THE MOIST SECTOR, WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY
AND INTO TONIGHT. THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN STALLED IN THE EASTERN
ROLLING PLAINS UNTIL SUNSET. INTENSE DRY-BULBING WAS UNDERWAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE CWA DESPITE THE
WELL-DEFINED GRADIENT IN VERTICAL MIXING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS REMAIN IN STORE FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. PLEASE REFERENCE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS. OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL BREACH 100 DEGREES IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS WHILE PEAKING IN THE UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. THE DRYLINE CONTINUES TO SHARPEN, WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S PRESENT ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AND
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S NEAR THE HWY-70 AND HWY-86 JUNCTION PER
RECENT WTM DATA. WTM DATA INDICATES A LOCALIZED AREA OF CONVERGENCE
NEAR THESE LOCALES, WITH CONFLUENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE CONTINUING TO
SHARPEN AS SURFACE WINDS STRENGTHEN. STORM-RELATIVE WINDS ARE WEAK
THROUGHOUT THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER; HOWEVER, MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES NEAR 30 KT WOULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION OF UPDRAFTS
AMIDST LARGE THERMAL INSTABILITY BETWEEN 2,500-3,000 J/KG AND STEEP,
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8 DEG C/KM. HIGH-BASED STORMS
WOULD POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH DUE TO THE
CLASSIC INVERTED-V BOUNDARY-LAYER PROFILES AND WATER-LOADED CORES,
IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER. COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED TO ONE OR TWO STORMS AT BEST. STORM CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, WITH THE DRYLINE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE
WESTWARD TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BREEZY AMIDST
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN, WITH HUMID AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AREA-WIDE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN, WITH THE LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHT FALLS WILL GENERATE A MODERATE ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE AT THE
SURFACE, WITH A 994-996 MB LEE CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEEPEN NEAR THE
RATON MESA WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STALLED. THE DRYLINE WILL ONCE
AGAIN PROPAGATE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND STALL BETWEEN THE HWY-72
AND HWY-83 CORRIDORS, WITH AN EXPECTATION FOR SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE CAPROCK AND MOST OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON, PARTICULARLY ON THE
CAPROCK, SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAPROCK AND MOST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY. PLEASE REFERENCE
THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED STORMS, SOME SEVERE, WILL RETURN TO THE EASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SUNDAY AS THE DRYLINE
SHARPENS BENEATH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS TO LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT COMPARED TO SATURDAY. A RESERVOIR OF LARGE INSTABILITY WILL
BE MAINTAINED, WITH MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3,000 J/KG ACROSS THE
MOIST SECTOR AMIDST STRONG CINH AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.
WHILE THE TRIPLE POINT WILL BE DISPLACED INTO CENTRAL KS, LOCALIZED
AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF ONE OR
TWO SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS AND VERY
LARGE HAIL, POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER. THIS
SCENARIO IS CONDITIONAL, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE EASTERN ZONES
ARE BEREFT OF STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, STORMS THAT INITIATE
WILL BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY, WITH RIGHT-MOVING STORM MOTION VECTORS
NEAR 20 KT SHOULD STORMS BE ABLE TO PROPAGATE. THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS WILL END AFTER SUNSET, WITH THE DRYLINE ONCE AGAIN RETREATING
WESTWARD AND RESULTING IN RAPID MOISTURE RETURN AREA-WIDE AS SURFACE
WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH WHILE REMAINING SLIGHTLY BREEZY.
SINCAVAGE
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH, ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED
CLOSED LOW, IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. RAPID MOISTURE RETURN ASSOCIATED
WITH AN INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET TO 45-50 KT AS THE DRYLINE SLOSHES
WESTWARD WILL SATURATE THE DECOUPLED BOUNDARY-LAYER, WITH LOW-LEVEL
STRATUS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MEANWHILE, THE
700 MB TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PIVOT INTO W TX DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS MONDAY, WHICH MAY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ROOTED
ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS DECK. THE COVERAGE OF ELEVATED STORMS
REMAINS UNCLEAR, AS DOES THE RISK FOR SEVERE-CALIBER HAIL, BUT THE
INTENSITY OF THE WAA WITHIN THE LOW-LEVELS BOLSTERED ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO DELINEATE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG A LINE FROM DENVER
CITY TO MEMPHIS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
WILL RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.
LOW-END WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA MONDAY AS THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED. THE DRYLINE WILL, FOR THE
THIRD DAY IN A ROW, PROPAGATE INTO THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS AND
STALL AS THE MOST INTENSE FORCING FOR ASCENT OCCURS WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE CWA. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY, WITH EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, AS WINDS MAY POTENTIALLY STRENGTHEN TO
ADVISORY-LEVEL ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TX PH. PLEASE REFERENCE
THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. LOW POPS HAVE
BEEN DRAWN ACROSS THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS, BUT THE WINDOW FOR
STORMS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING KINEMATIC
FIELDS ALOFT. HOWEVER, STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE QUICKLY AMIDST THE MAINTENANCE
OF LARGE THERMAL INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT. DAMAGING
DOWNDRAFTS AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS SHOULD
STORMS AFFECT THE EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CWA DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS
TUESDAY, WITH BRISK, NORTHERLY WINDS TRAILING THE FRONT. AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD, IT WILL BE CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED, WHICH
WOULD ACCELERATE ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT. THEREFORE, ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT MAY BE NEEDED IN FORTHCOMING CYCLES. IN FACT,
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR ONGOING STORMS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE
EAST OF THE CWA TO UNZIP WESTWARD INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS BY TUESDAY
MORNING. POPS INITIALIZED BY THE NBM HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. MUCH
COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST TUESDAY AND INTO MID-WEEK, WITH PROSPECTS
FOR STORMS RETURNING EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
DUE TO BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
SINCAVAGE
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING:
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CAPROCK AND MOST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS, WITH
THE DRYLINE REMAINING STALLED BETWEEN THE HWY-72 AND HWY-83
CORRIDORS WHERE A SUBSTANTIAL WIND SHIFT EXISTS. FUELS REMAIN
CRITICALLY DRY, WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS 5 PERCENT EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ON THE CAPROCK. IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF
THE DRYLINE, RH VALUES SPIKE TO ABOVE 40 PERCENT AS OF 1717Z, BUT
WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT IN CONCERT WITH PEAK HEATING AS
TEMPERATURES BREACH 100 DEGREES IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, MAY FORM ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR DRY LIGHTNING
THAT MAY RESULT IN THE IGNITION OF NEW WILDFIRES IN AREAS THAT
OBSERVED MINIMAL RAINFALL YESTERDAY IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE
DRYLINE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT WESTWARD AS THE SUN SETS, WITH WINDS
BACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTH AMIDST EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY TONIGHT. RH
WILL RECOVER TO ABOVE 80 PERCENT FOR ALL OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
THE MAJORITY OF THE CAPROCK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCALES IN THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN TX PH AS THE DRYLINE STALLS NEAR THE NM STATE LINE
IN A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST-ORIENTED MANNER. WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BREEZY, OR NEAR 15-20 MPH, WITH
AREAS ALONG THE LEE OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT EXPERIENCING LOCALLY
STRONGER WINDS NEAR 20-30 MPH AND LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH.
SUNDAY:
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST
OF W TX SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH LOCALIZED EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MORE-WIDESPREAD EXTREMELY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY. THE DRYLINE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND STALL ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH VERY DEEP MIXING OF THE POST-DRYLINE AIRMASS
EXPECTED AS MIXING HEIGHTS SOAR INTO THE MID-LEVELS. HOT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE MIDDLE-UPPER 90S, GARNERING MINIMUM RH
VALUES OF 5 PERCENT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CAPROCK. RH VALUES
BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT ARE FORECAST IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS AS
THE DRYLINE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN STALL BETWEEN THE HWY-72 AND HWY-83
CORRIDORS, ALTHOUGH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. ISOLATED STORMS, SOME SEVERE, MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THEREBY POSING ANOTHER RISK FOR CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
IN RAIN-FREE AREAS. BY SUNDAY EVENING, THE DRYLINE WILL ONCE AGAIN
RETREAT WESTWARD, WITH BREEZY WINDS TRANSITIONING TO THE SOUTH AS
THE DRYLINE TRANSLATES WEST. RH RECOVERY ABOVE 80 PERCENT IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND MOST OF THE CAPROCK, AS THE
DRYLINE WILL STALL NEAR THE NM STATE LINE.
MONDAY:
AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL EMERGE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY
MONDAY AND GENERATE A STRONG SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
RATON MESA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ACCELERATE BY THE MID-TO-LATE
MORNING HOURS MONDAY AS THE DRYLINE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW, WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN
SUNDAY, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH AND GUSTING
TO 40 MPH AMIDST RH REDUCTIONS BELOW 5 PERCENT FOR SOME LOCALES.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE
SWATHS OF STRONGEST WINDS DUE TO THE CRITICALLY TO EXTREMELY DRY
STATE OF FUELS. RFTIS ABOVE 6 ARE FORECAST ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE CAPROCK MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
AREA-WIDE FOR MONDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE
MET AS EARLY AS 10 AM CDT ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. ISOLATED
STORMS, SOME SEVERE, WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>037-
039>043.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ021>025-
027>031-033>037-039>043.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ021>044.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...10
FIRE WEATHER...09
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