466
FXUS64 KLUB 170228
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
928 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 921 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS.
- A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GRADUALLY DEEPENING CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN. AS A RESULT, ANOTHER
VERY BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS ON THE WAY FOR SUNDAY
ACROSS WEST TX. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, ROBUST OVERNIGHT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY HUMID CONDITIONS
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL QUICKLY
INTENSIFY BY MIDDAY AS A TROUGH AXIS CENTERED NEAR THE OK PANHANDLE
DEEPENS TO ABOUT 990MB, IN TURN RESULTING IN A VERY QUICK WARM-UP AND
RESUMPTION OF DEEP DIURNAL MIXING. THE DRYLINE IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO
MIX JUST EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO ITS WEST AND SLIGHTLY BACKED
SURFACE FLOW TO ITS EAST OVER THE SE TX PANHANDLE AND ROLLING
PLAINS. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS WEST
OF THE DRYLINE ON SUNDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND EXTREMELY
DRY FUELS.
OVERALL, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
SUNDAY, BUT THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR,
IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE OVER THE SE TX PANHANDLE AND POINTS NORTH
AND EAST, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING A STOUT CAPPING
INVERSION IN PLACE FARTHER SOUTH. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
ALSO PROGGED TO BE QUITE WEAK, SO ANY STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BE VERY ISOLATED OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. STILL, PLENTIFUL
INSTABILITY (MLCAPE ABOVE 1500 J/KG) AND SLIGHTLY BETTER SHEAR
MAGNITUDES COMPARED TO DAYS PAST WILL ALLOW ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP TO EASILY BECOME SEVERE. ANY STORM ACTIVITY WILL END AFTER
SUNSET WITH ANOTHER DRY AND MILD OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXPECTED, WITH
SOME LOW CLOUD COVER ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP HEADING INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER DAY, IN
ADDITION TO LOW CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS INITIALLY OVER UT
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER CO THROUGH THE DAY, WHICH WILL INDUCE RAPID
LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SE CO AND NE NM. THIS IMPRESSIVE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES MONDAY AFTERNOON,
BRINGING A PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE CAPROCK AS THE
DRYLINE MIXES OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY STRONG FOR MID MAY ON MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
NEARING ADVISORY LEVELS OVER MOST OF THE CAPROCK, AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN CRITICAL TO LOCALLY EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND MOST CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL
OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE WHERE SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT RAPID FIRE SPREAD WILL BE LIKELY
ANYWHERE A FIRE DEVELOPS GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS, UNSEASONABLE
HEAT, AND RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE OTHER STORY FOR
MONDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DRYLINE. CURRENTLY, WE EXPECT THE DRYLINE TO POSITION A BIT
FARTHER EAST MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY, WHICH WILL LIMIT SEVERE
STORM CHANCES TO THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS, AND PERHAPS THE FAR
SE TX PANHANDLE. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE STRONGER COMPARED TO
OVER THE WEEKEND, SO STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE NUMEROUS.
NEVERTHELESS, THE POSITION OF THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE
WINDOW FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY RELATIVELY SMALL IN OUR FORECAST
AREA BEFORE ANY ACTIVITY EXITS TO OUR EAST.
A WELCOMED COOLDOWN WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL. OTHERWISE, PLEASANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WEST TX TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 70S AND 80S AS SURFACE FLOW RETAINS AN EASTERLY COMPONENT.
UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE ONGOING UPSLOPE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOST OF
THE REGION EACH DAY TUESDAY AND BEYOND. ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS GENERALLY
INDICATES A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD, THOUGH SPECIFIC AMOUNTS
AND DETAILS ON ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAIN QUITE MURKY AT
THIS LEAD TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH SSW
SURFACE FLOW REMAINING RELATIVELY STRONG OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
PARTICULARLY AT KCDS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS MUCH TOO
LOW FOR TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR SUNDAY,
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BY LATE MORNING AND BE SUSTAINED
AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES AS LOW AS 5 PERCENT ON THE CAPROCK AND OVER THE WESTERN
ROLLING PLAINS. OFF THE CAPROCK, WINDS WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY
STRONG, BUT THE PRESENCE OF A DRYLINE WILL RESULT IN HIGHER HUMIDITY
HERE, WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY ABOVE 25 PERCENT. A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF CHILDRESS, COTTLE, KING, AND STONEWALL COUNTIES WHERE A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT. ON MONDAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE EVEN STRONGER WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE, WHERE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
BECOME EXTREMELY CRITICAL FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION ON MONDAY.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ021>025-
027>031-033>037-039>043.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ021>044.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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