019
FXUS64 KLUB 172329
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
629 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 625 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
- CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY, WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DAILY STORM CHANCES TO FOLLOW.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
HIGH-IMPACT FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS GROWTH AND SPREAD OF
WILDFIRES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS, AN
AMPLIFYING, POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WAS DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN, WITH A WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC LEAF OVER NORTHERN NV. FARTHER
SOUTH, THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK WAS
BEGINNING TO ECLIPSE THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, EVIDENT
BY THE CORRIDOR OF BANDED CIRRUS/GRAVITY WAVES ADVECTING QUICKLY
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WAS MODEST
OVER W TX THIS EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE SUPERPOSITION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC FEATURES RELATIVE TO THE CWA, WITH THE
BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING TO ADVECT A STOUT ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER OVER THE REGION. THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL EJECT
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE BECOMING
NEGATIVELY-TILTED, LEADING TO A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS (SOME SEVERE) IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS AND A
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER EPISODE, ESPECIALLY ON THE
CAPROCK, MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR DETAILS INVOLVING THE
FIRE WEATHER RISKS TODAY AND MONDAY, PLEASE REFERENCE THE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
AT THE SURFACE, A DEEPENING LEE CYCLONE ANALYZED AT 992 MB WAS
LOCATED NEAR DDC, WITH THE MESO-ALPHA-SCALE DRYLINE EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN TX PH AND ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT PER RECENT METAR AND MESONET DATA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WERE BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DRYLINE, WITH
WINDS REMAINING BACKED POLEWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS
WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE-UPPER 60S AREA PRESENT. THE DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, WITH STRONG CINH
INTACT ACROSS THE MOIST SECTOR. WHILE FLOW ALONG THE DRYLINE WAS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT, CONVERGENCE WAS RATHER SCANT, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TX PH WHERE WINDS OBSERVED BY
THE ESTELLINE WTM REMAINED BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST. INTENSE HEATING
WAS ALSO UNDERWAY, AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST(S) REMAIN ON TRACK,
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE MIDDLE-UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK
AND TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON
WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TX PH, WITH POPS
REMOVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. WHILE INTENSE HEATING
CONTINUES TO REMOVE THE STRONG CINH (-316 J/KG OBSERVED BY THE 12Z
RAOB FROM WFO AMA), THE LACK OF CONVERGENCE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN PARCELS BECOMING ENTRAINED BY THE
DRYLINE CIRCULATION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TX
PH, WHERE WEAK CINH IN THE PRESENCE OF LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE MAY
RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF AN ISOLATED STORM AFTER 21Z. HOWEVER,
SHOULD THIS OCCUR, THEN THE RESIDENCE TIME FOR STORM(S) WITHIN THE
CWA WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, ALTHOUGH THE STRONG-EXTREME THERMAL
INSTABILITY AND MODERATE BULK SHEAR NEAR 45 KT WOULD PROMOTE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT IN THE EVENT INITIATION OCCURS. THEREFORE, THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS INTACT DESPITE THE NARROW SPATIOTEMPORAL WINDOW,
WITH DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL UP TO TWO
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE.
THE DRYLINE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE WESTWARD BY 18/00Z, WITH RAPID
MOISTENING OF THE AIRMASS EXPECTED AS THE DRYLINE STALLS NEAR THE NM
STATE LINE BY DAWN MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE WARMED FROM THE NBM
DUE TO THE BRISK, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND RELATED WAA INHIBITING
NOCTURNAL COOLING. LOW-LEVEL STRATUS IS ALSO FORECAST TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY MORNING, WITH OVERCAST
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL JET, AT OR
AROUND 40 KT, VEERS. WAA-INDUCED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS NEAR AND
AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY AS THE 700 MB TROUGH ARRIVES. ELEVATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL RACE NORTHEASTWARD PRIOR TO 18Z
MONDAY, AND THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK SHOULD BE LIMITED DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. STRONG, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
AREA-WIDE MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO LARGE-SCALE PRESSURE FALLS GENERATED
BY THE NEGATIVELY-TILTING TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 20-35 MPH, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45-50 MPH, ARE FORECAST; AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN TX PH. A CONSIDERATION WAS MADE FOR A WIND ADVISORY,
BUT WAS WITHHELD AS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GRIDS ARE ON THE CUSP OF
ADVISORY-LEVEL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE HOT MONDAY, BUT
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY, OWING TO THE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT; AND SOME BLOWING DUST WILL OCCUR ON THE CAPROCK. ISOLATED
STORMS, SOME SEVERE, WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT WITH THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA, ATTEMPTS AT INITIATION MAY FAIL
ENTIRELY. POPS WERE TRIMMED AND CONFINED TO LOCALES ALONG AND EAST
OF THE HWY-83 CORRIDOR, WITH STORM CHANCES ENDING MONDAY EVENING.
SINCAVAGE
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
A STRONG, CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO SURGE INTO THE CWA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A SQUALL
LINE/MCS IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO CONTINUE
UNZIPPING WESTWARD INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AS THE COLD FRONT DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS TUESDAY. CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED COLD FRONTS HAVE
A TENDENCY TO PROPAGATE FASTER THAN WHAT NWP GUIDANCE INDICATES, AND
AS OF NOW, THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PH
BY 2 AM CDT TUESDAY MORNING. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FRONTAL TIMING, AS
WELL AS THE POPS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS, MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER
FORECASTS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE ELEVATED AND POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING HAIL
DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 3,000 J/KG.
STORM CHANCES WILL END FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE COLD FRONT TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA, WHICH SHOULD STALL NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH STILL WARM,
ARE FORECAST TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S TO THE
UPPER 80S FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA, RESPECTIVELY, WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
INTO THE REGION. BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. AND GREAT PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF
THIS WEEK, WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FORECAST TO DRIFT
POLEWARD TOWARDS THE CWA. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
UNCLEAR WITH THIS PROGNOSTICATION, BUT WITH THE CWA POSITIONED
BENEATH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION TO AN AMPLIFIED JET STREAK OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE
FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE MEAN TROUGHING TO
THE WEST WILL BE SLOW TO PROGRESS.
SINCAVAGE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
RELATIVELY STRONG SSW SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS EVENING, ONLY WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET AND
REMAINING ON THE BREEZY SIDE OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES ON MONDAY MORNING, BUT
WHETHER OR NOT THESE CIGS IMPACT THE TERMINALS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
WINDS WILL VEER MORE TOWARDS THE SW BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
BECOME STRONG ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 KT POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING:
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN EXPECTED FOR THE CAPROCK,
AND MOST OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TX PH AND ROLLING PLAINS, THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SHARPENING DRYLINE WILL STALL IN A SIMILAR POSITION
TO YESTERDAY, OR BETWEEN THE HWY-70 AND HWY-83 CORRIDORS, WITH VERY
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH (GUSTING TO 40 MPH) ACROSS
THE CAPROCK INTO AREAS IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE DRYLINE. WINDS WILL
BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE, WITH
SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS. VERY DEEP MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AND HOT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE-UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK TO NEAR
100 DEGREES IN THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL RESULT IN VERY LOW RH VALUES
NEAR 5 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. FUELS ARE BECOMING EXTREMELY DRY,
WITH LOCALIZED EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TX PH THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT. THE DRYLINE WILL BEGIN RETREATING
TOWARDS THE WEST AFTER 7 PM CDT, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND BACKING
SOUTHWARD AS THE DRYLINE MOVES TOWARDS THE NM STATE LINE. EXCELLENT
RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE DRYLINE WILL STALL NEAR AND
ALONG THE NM STATE LINE BY DAWN MONDAY, WITH RH MAXIMA ABOVE 80
PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TX PH
WILL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER TONIGHT, BUT WITH RH ABOVE 40 PERCENT.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT:
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CAPROCK, THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, AND MOST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR DANGEROUS GROWTH AND SPREAD OF WILDFIRES, WITH AN OUTBREAK OF
WILDFIRES POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL ALREADY BE BREEZY BY THE MID-MORNING
HOURS MONDAY, WITH THE DRYLINE EXPECTED TO SURGE EASTWARD QUICKLY
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND STALL IN THE EASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AN INTENSE UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, WHICH WILL DRIVE THE
FORMATION OF A STRONG SURFACE LOW NEAR THE RATON MESA THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 20-35 MPH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 45-50 MPH; AND THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE ON THE CAPROCK. THE COMBINATION OF HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND VERY DEEP MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY-LAYER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DRYLINE WILL GARNER RH VALUES AT OR EVEN BELOW 5 PERCENT FOR SOME
LOCALES AMIDST EXTREMELY DRY FUELS. CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE THAN
FAVORABLE FOR LIFE-THREATENING GROWTH AND SPREAD RATES OF WILDFIRES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HWY-114
CORRIDOR, WHICH IS WHERE RFTIS 8 OR GREATER ARE EXPECTED. THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF THE
CAPROCK AND MOST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS, AND WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
11 AM UNTIL 10 PM CDT MONDAY. A LOCAL-IN-TIME EXTENSION OF THE RED
FLAG WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY, BUT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY
10 PM CDT BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH VERY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING, THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TX PH BY 2 AM CDT
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE
FRONT, WITH WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 15-25 MPH AND LOCALIZED GUSTS
BETWEEN 30-35 MPH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLIER THAN WHAT THIS FORECAST INDICATES. RH WILL
RECOVER TO ABOVE 50 PERCENT AREA-WIDE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>025-
027>031-033>037-039>043.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ021>037-
039>043.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...30
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page