779
FXUS64 KLUB 181713
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1213 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
- CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE CAPROCK, THEN AGAIN ALONG AN
OVERNIGHT FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
- MUCH COOLER TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WILL SET UP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGIONS EARLY MONDAY MORNING,
BEFORE TRANSLATING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THUS LEADING TO THE CONTINUATION OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASED SPEEDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY
MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INCHES CLOSER TO THE REGION, WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 40 TO 50 KNOTS, AND UP TO 60+ KNOTS WITHIN THE H5 JET.
ADDITIONALLY, MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND OVERSPREAD THE
CAPROCK REGIONS AS NOTABLE H7 AND H8 WIND MAXIMA SET UP NEAR THE
SOUTH PLAINS WHILE A SURFACE LOWS SETS UP OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THIS WILL PROMOTE EASTWARD MIXING OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON, SETTING UP ACROSS OUR MOST EASTERN
COLUMN OF COUNTIES, WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S AND LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS AS BREEZY TO NEAR WINDY SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES. THREE HOUR MSLP CHANGES AROUND 3MB TO 4MB SUGGEST WINDS
WILL BECOME NEAR AND/OR IN EXCESS OF WIND ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 50 MPH
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS FROM
NOON THROUGH 8 PM CDT MONDAY. EAST OF THE BOUNDARY, LOW- LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE MORE ROBUST, WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES PROGGED
IN THE 50S AND 60S. THESE DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS WITH SOUNDINGS DEPICTING MLCAPE AMOUNTS AROUND 1500 J/KG.
WHILE WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY LIMIT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE
ACROSS THE CWA, WITH BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT RESIDING TO OUR
NORTH, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE LOCALIZED SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED ALONG THE DRYLINE BEFORE IT MIXES EAST OUT OF THE AREA.
WEST OF THE DRYLINE, HOT TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WIND
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SUPPORT
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE DANGER. ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WERE
RFTIS OF 7 TO 8 APPEAR LIKELY WITH ERCS RANGING FROM THE 70TH TO
95TH PERCENTILES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE THE RAPID SPREAD
OF WILDFIRES IF ANY FIRE STARTS INITIATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM
MONDAY.
BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS
REGION SENDING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION AS THE
SURFACE HIGH DIVES SOUTHWARD. MOST CAMS KEEP THIS FRONT NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AROUND 05Z TUESDAY. GIVEN THE FASTER
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT IN RECENT GUIDANCE, THERE IS A CHANCE THIS
FRONT SPEEDS UP AND ENTERS PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
NONETHELESS, AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR MOST EASTERN COLUMN OF
COUNTIES. HOWEVER MUCH OF THIS WILL BE BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF
RESIDUAL MOISTURE THAT RESIDES IN OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
A MUCH NEEDED COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TO START THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT, PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION, MAKES IT'S ARRIVAL INTO THE CAPROCK REGIONS. MOST
GUIDANCE HAS THE COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FA JUST AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
MAINLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH CHANCES WANING THROUGH
MORNING. MOST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE PRESENT DURING THE TIME OF THE FROPA. IF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING STEEP MID-LEEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM
AND BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 40 KNOTS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING TUESDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING MORE
EASTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. WITH A COOLER AIRMASS
IN PLACE AND UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH
COOLER HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 70S AND 80S. THIS EASTERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID-WEEK PERIOD,
ALLOWING FOR THE COOLER HIGHS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY,
BEFORE A MODEST WARM-UP BEGINS TO START THE WEEKEND.
THERE REMAINS A SMALL WINDOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS THE STALLED FROPA
BEGINS TO RETREAT BACK NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE REGION. THERE REMAINS
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY, BUT IF THIS BOUNDARY RETREATS BACK INTO
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WE
COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. AS FOR
PRECIPITATION THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
LOOK TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHILE PERTURBATIONS
SIMULTANEOUSLY TRACK THROUGH THE MAIN FLOW. IN ADDITION TO THE
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ALLOWING FOR INCREASED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF INTO THE REGION MAY BE ENOUGH FOR DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY, WHEN WE SEE THE BEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND INCREASED LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH PWATS WELL
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE NORMAL 9AROUND AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER, IT IS A BIT TOO EARLY TO GET
INTO SPECIFICS GIVEN THE LACK OF UNIFORMITY AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 25-30 KTS AND GUSTING TO 40
KTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH TUESDAY
MORNING. VFR WILL CONTINUE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK REGIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO LOW-
END WINDY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 25 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS FIXATED ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS,
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE LOWER SINGLE
DIGITS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE CAPROCK IS WHERE WE EXPECT
THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TO EXIST WITH
RFTIS AROUND 7 TO 8. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH 10 PM CDT MONDAY EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS FROM NOON TILL 8 PM CDT MONDAY. DO YOUR PART AND
AVOID ACTIVITIES THAT MAY CAUSE A SPARK TO HELP PREVENT THE RAPID
SPREAD OF WILDFIRES.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>037-
039>043.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>031-033>036.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...19
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