798
FXUS64 KLUB 190345
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1045 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1042 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
- MUCH COOLER TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED STORM ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS.
- COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FROM MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS LATE THIS EVENING ANALYZE THE
PREVIOUSLY STALLED FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, WHERE IT
HAS RESUMED ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OVER THE LAST HOUR. THIS FROPA
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT'S WAY INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, AROUND THE 06Z TO 07Z TIMEFRAME. BEHIND THE
FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WHERE THEY MAY
BRIEFLY BECOME BREEZY AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
REMAINS A SLIM WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS, WHERE MOISTURE WILL
BE MAXIMIZED WITH THE DRYLINE SLOWLY RETREATING WESTWARD. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT LOW IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITAION OVERNIGHT
WITH MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING AND LOCATION, IF ANY
STORMS AT ALL DEVELOP. IF THEY DO, CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM AND
BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES AROUND 40 KNOTS WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL WANE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY, THEREAFTER MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE FA, POST-FRONTAL
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
BECOMING EASTERLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. WITH THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND A MUCH COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL VARY ACROSS THE REGION, AND
WILL REMAIN DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA. NBM HIGHS SEEM A
BIT TO WARM ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SO OPTED FOR A BLEND OF NBM
25TH PERCENTILE TO REFLECT THE FROPA MOVING THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK.
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY EXISTS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE STALLED FROPA TO OUR SOUTH RETREATS
BACK NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY, MOST
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS SCENARIO. NONETHELESS, DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR NORTH THE BOUNDARY RETREATS WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. OTHERWISE, A QUIET NIGHT IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WITH COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S WHILE OFF THE CAPROCK EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S THANKS TO
INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
THE MAIN THEME OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE THE DAILY
AFTERNOON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED PARENT TROUGH REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH DIGGING INTO
THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS TRACKING THROUGH THE
MAIN FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE REGION EACH DAY FROM
MID TO LATE WEEK THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE OFF TO OUR EAST, AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY,
BEFORE WE SEE A MORE WESTERLY REGIME SET-UP BY LATE WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY LIMIT
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION, WITH RECENT GUIDANCE
PLACING THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE PLUME EAST OF THE AREA. THIS IS
ALSO REFLECTED IN BOTH THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE RUNS WITH THE QPF
FOOTPRINT FAVORING HIGHER PRECIPITATION TOTALS OFF TO OUR EAST.
NONETHELESS, THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WINDS WITH
RELATIVELY EASTERLY FLOW WILL WORK TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE IN FROM THE
GULF ALLOWING FOR RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.
DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED IN THE 50S AND 60S, WITH MID TO UPPER 60
DEWPOINTS POSITIONED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE WE
EXPECT THE BEST MOISTURE TO BE POSITIONED. SIMILAR TO THE M-D TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE, THE BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS TO REMAIN
CONFINED TO A PAIR OF H5 JET MAXIMAS THAT ARE FORECASTED TO REMAIN
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. THEREFORE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE PERTURBATIONS TRANSLATING
THROUGH THE MAIN FLOW AND INTERACTING WITH THE MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, WHEN THE STRONGEST VORTICITY MAX MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS REGION AND TAPS INTO THE PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE. IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION, PRIMARILY
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, WHERE WE FIND PWATS AROUND 1.25" TO 1.50"
WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE SEASONAL NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH
ACTIVITY, ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN MODEST MLLR
AROUND 7 TO 8 C/KM AND MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-1700J/KG. EXPECT A
SIMILAR SET UP EACH AFTERNOON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
PERTURBATIONS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION AND ATTEMPT TO TAP IN TO THE
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, TUESDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE MUCH
NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE ABSURDLY WARM TEMPERATURES WE SAW LAST WEEK
AND THIS PAST WEEKEND. EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AND WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESS VALUES WE CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S TO HOLD THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY, BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SEE A SUBTLE WARM UP BACK IN THE
80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
VFR AND STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT, AND WILL BRING A SHIFT TO STRONG NORTH WINDS
WHICH WILL CONTINUE FROM BEFORE SUNRISE ON TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING. SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE FRONT, WITH TS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KCDS WITH
LESSER CHANCES FOR THUNDER AT KLBB AND KPVW. A PERIOD OF POST-
FRONTAL MVFR CIGS IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES ON TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS AT KCDS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...30
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