409
FXUS64 KLUB 191759
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1259 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
- AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS THIS EVENING.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
THE COLD FRONT HAS EXITED THE REGION THIS MORNING LEAVING BREEZY
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THESE BREEZY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ON THE UPPER
LEVELS, A BROAD TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN CONUS. AN EMBEDDED
UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRIGGER
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. AS A
RESULT, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
WITH THE SHIFT IN DIRECTION, HOWEVER WE WILL STILL SEE WIND SPEEDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH THE REST OF THE DAY. DESPITE THE BREEZY WINDS THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THE REST OF TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
PLEASANT. COOLER AIR FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BRING A MUCH NEEDED
BREAK FROM THE HOT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TODAY WILL WARM TO THE LOWER
70S TO LOWER 80S ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. NBM HAS BACKED OFF ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
ROLLING PLAINS THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED
TO CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE REST OF THE NIGHT
WILL BE QUIET WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN STAGNANT OVER WESTERN CONUS,
HOWEVER A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ACROSS WESTERN CANADA
BEFORE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL TRIGGER THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THIS TIME
OVER COLORADO. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY BREEZY EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL FILL IN
OVERNIGHT DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF WEDNESDAY. HINDRANCE OF
DAYTIME HEATING DUE TO CLOUDS AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. UPPER LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED BY A JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHCENTRAL CONUS AS WELL AS A PASSING EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE. STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ZONES
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EXPAND ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL
BRING MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER, CAPE VALUES INCREASING UP TO
1500-2000 J/KG LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BRING THE
CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ONLY SMALL TO QUARTER SIZE
HAIL AND SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS
THAT DEVELOP. WITH PWAT VALUES REACHING UP TO 1.5", ESPECIALLY OFF
THE CAPROCK, WE COULD SEE BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL START OFF WITH THE CONTINUATION OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY THURSDAY AS A PASSING SHORTWAVE PROLONGS UPPER FORCING. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS OVER NORTHCENTRAL CONUS WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE ROCKIES SHIFTING UPPER WINDS ALOFT TO THE WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
RETURN. WITH THE LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE, WE WILL SEE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT WARM UP ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
AIDING IN "COOLING" TEMPERATURES AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH
ONLY TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE POSSIBLE EVERYDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. AFTER THE
LULL OVERNIGHT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE UPPER SHORTWAVES. THE UNCERTAINTY
AT THE MOMENT WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS
OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SKIES WILL CLEAR AND NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT ALL SITES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WITH LIFR AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT KCDS. THESE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...19
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page