496
FXUS64 KLUB 200346
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1046 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1046 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
- OVERCAST AND SOME FOG RETURNS WEDNESDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- BRIEF, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE COMMON WITH STORMS WEDNESDAY, WITH
HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE POSSIBLE.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
01Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LARGE-SCALE, POSITIVELY-TILTED
TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH AN ILL-DEFINED VORTICITY
LOBE EVIDENT ON RECENT WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY THAT WAS EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER BAJA SUR AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. A DISHEVELED
AND EXPANSIVE BAROCLINIC LEAF IS PRESENT, AS IT HAS BEEN STRETCHED
OUT WHILE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS IT BEGINS TO BECOME
ABSORBED INTO THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION TO A 250 MB JET STREAK THAT
WAS OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED AT 95 KT PER THE 20/00Z UA CHARTS. BROADLY
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE COURSE
OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD, WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION TO THE MID-
AND HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS TRANSLATING EASTWARD AND OVER W TX BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE FLOW HAS RESULTED IN THUNDERSTORMS FAR TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CWA, WITH THICK ANVIL DEBRIS ADVECTING POLEWARD
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS AND ECLIPSING THE CAPROCK. LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE SINCE MIXED OUT ON THE CAPROCK, BUT WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
PERSISTING AT 850 MB, LOW STRATUS REMAINS DAMMED OVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS PER METAR DATA AT CDS AND VUF. OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE ANVIL
DEBRIS FIELD HAVE ALSO REVEALED THE EXTENT OF THE STRATUS DECK. FOG
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS, AND
PERHAPS THE CAPROCK, WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOWER BOUNDARY-LAYER
NEARS ITS SATURATION POINT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THROUGH THE CWA EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU, AND BENDS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE TX BIG BEND AND BEYOND
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. A LEE CYCLONE WAS ANALYZED NEAR
THE SIERRA DEL CARMEN, WITH WTM DATA OBSERVING THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW; AND THE QUASI-STATIONARY/SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT THEN BRANCHES EASTWARD INTO THE LLANO UPLIFT BEFORE BENDING
NORTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL N TX. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ANCHORED ACROSS THAT CORRIDOR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN THE UPSLOPE/EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL
SERVE AS AN IMPETUS FOR THE INITIATION OF CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE VORTICITY LOBE ANALYZED OVER BAJA SUR WILL EMERGE OVER THE TX
BIG BEND AND EASTERN NM NEAR SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, WITH THE ANOMALY
BECOMING STRETCHED AND ELONGATED AS IT EJECTS OVER THE CWA. THIS
WILL OCCUR IN CONJUCTION WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250
MB JET STREAK TRANSLATING OVER W TX, FACILITATING A NET INCREASE IN
HIGH-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND SUBTLE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS ATOP THE
STABLE, POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. ELEVATED, FAST-MOVING CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE PV ANOMALY EJECTS OVER THE
CWA. THE SUBTLE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS AND BACKING OF DEEP-LAYER
FLOW ALOFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST WILL ADVECT THE EML OBSERVED BY THE
20/00Z RAOBS FROM MAF AND MMCU OVER THE CWA, WITH MUCAPE VALUES
INCREASING TO 1,000-1,500 J/KG ATOP THE STABLE AND NEAR-SATURATED
BOUNDARY-LAYER. MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES NEAR 30 KT AND
SOMEWHAT ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS WILL YIELD THE
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK, MID-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE
ELEVATED STORMS; AND WITH PARCEL TRAJECTORIES ROOTED ABOVE THE
STABLE AIRMASS, HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT
SEVERE-RELATED HAZARD WITH STORMS WEDNESDAY. BRIEF, HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE COMMON WITH STORMS OTHERWISE, ALTHOUGH THE QUICK PROGRESSION
OF STORMS WILL CURTAIL THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE DENSE
OVERCAST WILL RESTRICT DIABATIC HEATING, WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO
STRUGGLE TO BREACH 70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA, ESPECIALLY AS
THE UPSLOPE FLOW IS MAINTAINED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. STORM
CHANCES WILL WANE BY THE EVENING, WITH COOL AND DAMP CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG.
SINCAVAGE
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THURSDAY,
WITH A COMPACT, SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE MOSQUITO
AND SAWATCH RANGES. BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
THE CWA, ALBEIT A DEARTH IN MAGNITUDE AS IT BECOMES SUBGEOSTROPHIC
BETWEEN THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
THE CWA AND THE QUASI-ZONAL, SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. ANOTHER SMALL-SCALE, SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO EJECT INTO WESTERN TX THURSDAY, WITH THE BOUNDARY-LAYER
BECOMING WEAKLY CAPPED AS LOW-LEVEL STRATUS ERODES. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE 5-7 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH MINIMAL
MLCINH FORECAST AS WARMER THETA-E AIR ADVECTS INTO THE CWA AS A
WEAK, LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR 25 KT BACKS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES TO
AROUND 35 KT AMIDST THE MAINTAINED EML. NBM POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY TO REFLECT THE BEST TIMING. ISOLATED STORM CHANCES ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS BY FRIDAY,
WITH AREA-WIDE CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING
IS FORECAST TO ATTENUATE AND SPLIT INTO LOWER-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS, WITH THE SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVING BY THIS
WEEKEND. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW, WITH THE BEST STORM
CHANCES APPEARING TO BE EAST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG-TO-SEVERE, BUT MESOSCALE
DETAILS REMAIN NEBULOUS WITH THIS PROGNOSTICATION. ADDITIONAL STORM
CHANCES MAY ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT PREDICTABILITY IS LIMITED.
SINCAVAGE
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT KCDS, KLBB, AND KPVW THROUGH ROUGHLY 20/05Z,
OR MIDNIGHT CDT, WITH LOW CIGS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT ALL
TERMINALS DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY. IFR CIGS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS AS WELL. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY OVERNIGHT, WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING BY
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. VCSH CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DURING THIS TIME. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THERE EXISTS A
POSSIBILITY FOR TSTMS TO MOVE OVER W TX AND AFFECT KLBB AND KPVW
INTO THE EVENING. PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN ASSIGNED TO THOSE
TERMINALS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER AT
KLBB AND KPVW THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH OVERCAST
LIFTING TO VFR AT KCDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SINCAVAGE
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...09
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