547
FXUS64 KLUB 271058
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
558 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 558 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
- LOW STORM CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
TX PANHANDLE BEFORE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVES
THURSDAY.
- STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
QUITE A DYNAMIC UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
LATE TUESDAY EVENING WITH DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE OVER MOST OF
THE CONUS. A DEEP MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW IS PRESENT OVER CA/NV, WITH
THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AXIS RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR ROUND
OF EARLIER RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM SE CO OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION AND INTO N TX AS OF 02Z. THIS OVERALL SETUP WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY SIMILAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO, WITH THE BIGGEST
EVOLUTION BEING THE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS, WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO
CENTER OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION AND POTENTIALLY EVOLVE
INTO A CLOSED CIRCULATION BY LATE WEDNESDAY. AT THE LOW LEVELS, AN
MCV OVER THE SW TX PANHANDLE IS NOTABLY WEAKER THAN EARLIER IN
THE DAY, AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT, TAKING THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT. AS A RESULT, A VAST MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE RAIN-FREE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF OUR FAR SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE COUNTIES WHICH COULD SEE ON-AND-
OFF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS
AND EARLIER PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
SOME FOG FORMATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION, WITH ROBUST DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED
THEREAFTER. MOST HI-RES MODELS INDICATE A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL BE POSITIONED SOMEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE, WITH THE RESULTING DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE BEING A
FAVORABLE SPOT FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHERE EXACTLY CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OCCURS (OR WHETHER IT WILL OCCUR AT ALL) ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS UNCERTAIN, AS INHIBITION FROM CAPPING MAY BE TOO STRONG
TO OVERCOME. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL COOL
POCKET ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT TROUGH, SHOULD STORMS
ACTUALLY DEVELOP, STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
THEN PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
FAVORED LOCATION FOR STORMS WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUR SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE COUNTIES WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT HIGHEST, WITH
DECREASING STORM CHANCES AND A GENERALLY DRIER FORECAST FARTHER
SOUTH.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
ON THURSDAY, THE REMNANT UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT EVEN FARTHER TO OUR
NORTH, WITH A MODEST UPPER RIDGE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER OUR REGION
AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EASTWARD. THURSDAY IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY
ACROSS THE REGION ALTHOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES STILL REMAINING NEAR
AVERAGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST FRIDAY AS
INTENSIFYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SPREADS OVERHEAD AS THE
WESTERN LOW BEGINS ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SETUP IS
EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN ACTIVE DRYLINE POSSIBLE
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE. ROBUST INSTABILITY AND BETTER
SHEAR MAGNITUDES COMPARED TO EARLY THIS WEEK COULD RESULT IN SOME
SEVERE STORMS, BUT OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BUT MODEST MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND A BATCH OF DRIER AIR OVERHEAD
WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN STORM CHANCES ON SAT-SUN COMPARED TO
FRIDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THEREAFTER, BUT ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS STILL
POINTS TO THE CONTINUATION OF LOW STORM CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK,
AND TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES AS
WELL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KCDS THROUGH THE MID-MORNING
HOURS, WITH IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR THEREAFTER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOW
FORECAST AT KLBB AND KPVW, AS LOW CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
WEST OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY FOR TSTMS TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND TIMING IS TOO LOW
TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAFS WITH THIS ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD OTHERWISE.
SINCAVAGE
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...09
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