386
FXUS64 KLUB 272252
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
552 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 550 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
A BROAD SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG WITH A
NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AROUND THE SURFACE LOW WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ACROSS KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW AND WHERE THERE ARE A FEW LEFT
OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAY'S CONVECTION. THOUGH THE
SEVERE THREAT IS MINIMAL, A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND
PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE FA THURSDAY AND WILL HELP TO WARM
AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A FEW DEGREES OVER TODAY. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THERE BEING PLENTY OF WEAKNESS AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE FOR
UNORGANIZED CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CAMS SHOW DEVELOPMENT
ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARIES. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE EVEN LESS
THAN THAT OF TODAY DUE TO THE OVERHEAD RIDGE, THOUGH A SEVERE WIND
GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
THE UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY AND
WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS. THIS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE FA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON JUST AS A DRYLINE PUSHES EASTWARD FROM NEW MEXICO.
WHILE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE, MODELS
DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE NAM WHO KEEPS
CONVECTION AT A MINIMUM. THE ECMWF DIFFERS FROM MANY OTHER MODELS BY
KEEPING THE DRYLINE AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. WHILE MANY CAMS DO NOT
FORECAST PAST FRIDAY MORNING, SOME DO SHOW WEAK CONVECTION (RAIN
SHOWERS) DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT, THE EXPECTATION IS THERE WILL BE
AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION, THOUGH COVERAGE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN.
COVERAGE WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE BEST LIFT WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN
THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW AND HOW MUCH SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT
ALONG THE DRYLINE. FOR NOW POPS WILL BE CAPPED AT CHANCE. WHILE
SEVERE STORMS WILL DEFINITELY BE POSSIBLE, OVERALL SHEAR WILL BE
RATHER WEAK AND INSTABILITY MARGINAL AND WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD LATE FRIDAY
AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING BY SATURDAY EVENING
AND WILL BRING LIFT WITH IT. WHILE DRYLINE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY, THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE FA. A RATHER MESSY
UPPER PATTERN IS PROGGED SUNDAY AND BEYOND WITH WEAK UPPER FLOW WITH
DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KCDS AROUND SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...19
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