045
FXUS64 KLUB 281104
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
604 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 604 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
A COMPACT AND SHEARING MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE
LATE THIS EVENING IS SET TO DRIFT TO THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF AN UPPER RIDGE. DESPITE RISING HEIGHTS
AND BROAD SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE RIDGE, THERE IS A
SHARPENING H7 THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE ATOP A DECENT SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
ALONG WITH MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY, THESE FEATURES LOOK TO
SUPPORT A FEW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR N-NE
COUNTIES THAT EVENTUALLY FIZZLE BY MID MORNING AS THE LLJ WANES.
BY THE AFTERNOON, MOST GUIDANCE FAVORS A SURFACE RIDGE DEVELOPING
FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHICH
FOSTERS WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CAPROCK. PROVIDED
DEWPOINTS DON'T MIX OUT TOO AGGRESSIVELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
MLCAPES OF 900-1500 J/KG WITH MINIMAL CIN WOULD BE WITHIN REACH
DESPITE SOME SUBSIDENCE/WARMING AROUND H5 COURTESY OF THE
RIDGE. OPTED TO EXPAND 20 POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS
STABILIZE AND UPPER SUPPORT BECOMES MORE HOSTILE DIRECTLY UNDER
THE RIDGE AXIS.
FRIDAY MORNING OPENS WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS FOLLOWING THE DEPARTING
UPPER RIDGE. STRONGER SW FLOW FROM 700 MB TO 250 MB WILL ALSO
OVERSPREAD W TX WELL AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW PIVOTING FROM SOCAL TO
THE COLORADO PLATEAU. THIS DISTANT LOW WILL KEEP PRESSURE FALLS
FOCUSED OVER EASTERN NM WHICH KEEPS THE DRYLINE TO OUR WEST. ODDLY,
A FEW CAMS MIX OUT THE MOIST SECTOR CONSIDERABLY ON THE CAPROCK
WHICH PLUMMETS MLCAPES TO ZERO, BUT THE LARGER ENSEMBLE SIGNAL
SUPPORTS FAVORABLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EAST OF THE DRYLINE
SUPPORTIVE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS, SOME SEVERE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
SATURDAY FEATURES DEEPER W-SW FLOW THAT HELPS MIX THE DRYLINE OFF
THE CAPROCK AND PERHAPS BEYOND OUR ROLLING PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN A BREAK OF RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST AREAS. THIS SETUP
WILL FUEL MUCH WARMER HIGHS IN THE 90S. CONDITIONAL STORM CHANCES
EXIST SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG A RETREATING DRYLINE, BUT THIS LOOKS
UNLIKELY AT THE MOMENT GIVEN SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROGGED TO ARRIVE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN DECLINE MARKEDLY FOR
SUNDAY ALLOWING THE MOIST SECTOR TO LINGER IN OUR AREA AND SUPPORT
A BROADER POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORMS. THIS THEME
CARRIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER A
DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER W TX. HIGH TEMPS RETREAT FROM THE 90S THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE 80S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THANKS TO STEADY
MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCDS AS A FOG BANK CONTINUES
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TX PH. REDUCTIONS TO CIGS/VSBYS OF ANY KIND
SHOULD IMPROVE BY ABOUT 15Z, WITH VFR THEREAFTER. VFR IS EXPECTED
AT KLBB AND KPVW OTHERWISE. ISOLATED TSTMS MAY AFFECT KLBB AND
KPVW, BUT AN EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE TAFS HAS BEEN WITHHELD AT
THIS TIME DUE TO THE LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED.
SINCAVAGE
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...09
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