787
FXUS64 KLUB 281703
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1203 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1202 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
A SHEARED OUT TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY EAST OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HEIGHT RISES AND SUBSIDENCE WILL FILL IN
ALOFT BEHIND THIS DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS. DESPITE THIS, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, A
REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY,
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THETA-E VALUES TO SURGE
UPWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS. MODELS DEPICT FAIRLY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AROUND 2KM
UNDER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S LEADING TO RELATIVELY
HIGH CLOUD BASES. DESPITE THE WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING, THIS WILL YIELD UP TO 1500 J/KG OF
DEEPLY MIXED INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS. VERY
WEAK FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL CAUSE ANY UPDRAFTS TO
STRUGGLE TO BECOME ORGANIZED. GIVEN THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER, SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY
ALLOWING MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
A DEEPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PLACING WEST TEXAS IN THE
VICINITY OF AN EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ON THE ORDER
OF 60-80KT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVERHEAD WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH
THE DAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER ON FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE AS MIXED AS
IT IS TODAY BRINGING RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES. A LOW LEVEL THETA-
E AXIS WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A VERY DIFFUSE DRYLINE
POSITIONED IN THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. DEEPLY MIXED PARCELS WITH
THIS LAYER WILL AGAIN SEE INSTABILITY VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-
1500 J/KG BUT WITH INCREASED FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. INITIATION POINT OF ANY CONVECTION IS UNCLEAR AT THE
MOMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACTING UPON THE ENTIRE REGION.
THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM THE CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS TO THE WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. THE RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL SUPPORT STRONG
TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH A LESSER HAIL THREAT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
FOR SATURDAY, A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL ROTATE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS SPREADING INTO WESTERN KANSAS WILL BRING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND AN EASTWARD MIXING DRYLINE. BY THE AFTERNOON,
THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS OR CLOSE TO
THE FA BORDER. THEREFORE ANY STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE EAST OF THE FA
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES OF
CONVECTION IN BROAD LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KCDS AS A FOG BANK CONTINUES
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TX PH. REDUCTIONS TO CIGS/VSBYS OF ANY KIND
SHOULD IMPROVE BY ABOUT 15Z, WITH VFR THEREAFTER. VFR IS EXPECTED
AT KLBB AND KPVW OTHERWISE. ISOLATED TSTMS MAY AFFECT KLBB AND
KPVW, BUT AN EXPLICIT MENTION IN THE TAFS HAS BEEN WITHHELD AT
THIS TIME DUE TO THE LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED.
SINCAVAGE
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...09
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