074
FXUS64 KLUB 290333
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1033 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1028 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
- SOME STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- DRY AND HOTTER THIS WEEKEND, THEN COOLING NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY
RAIN CHANCES DEVELOPING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
A HEFTY PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE HIGH ALOFT WAS APPROACHING THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS NIGHT COURTESY OF A 90 KNOT SUBTROPICAL
JET RUNNING FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA TO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. AS
UPPER RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER WEST TEXAS SHIFTS EAST, THESE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES (SOME EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND STORMS) WILL EXPAND THROUGH
THE MORNING AND LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO ECLIPSE THURSDAY'S VALUES THANKS TO WARMER THICKNESSES.
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET LIES AN UPPER LOW FORECAST
TO LIFT FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN THE MORNING TO CENTRAL UTAH BY
FRIDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS DISPLACED WELL AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA, PRESSURE FALLS FOCUSING IN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY
WILL KEEP OUR WINDS SOUTHERLY WHILE BECOMING A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES.
DESPITE ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS, SHALLOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AT
DAYBREAK WILL MIX OUT THROUGH THE 50S AND EVEN THE 40S IN SOME
LOCALES AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND 90S. A DIFFUSE DRYLINE
SETS UP NEAR THE TX-NM BORDER BY MIDDAY, BUT THIS BOUNDARY SHOWS
LITTLE HOPE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION OWING TO POOR CONVERGENCE
AND WEAK VERTICAL CIRCULATION POTENTIAL. RATHER, FORCING APPEARS
TIED MORE TO THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER WIND MAXIMA FROM H7-H3 TOWARD
21Z. STORM INITIATION BY THIS TIME SHOULD ENCOUNTER ANYWHERE FROM
500 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE - HIGHEST ALONG AND EAST OF THE I27
AND HIGHWAY 87 CORRIDOR. ALONG WITH 35-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR, MINIMAL CIN, AND INVERTED-V DEPTHS OF 6-8K FEET, THE STAGE
LOOKS SET FOR SOME SWIFT-MOVING MULTICELLS WITH DOWNBURSTS THE
MAIN THREAT FOLLOWED BY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. STORMS SHOULD
CLEAR THE ROLLING PLAINS BY MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A PLEASANTLY MILD
OVERNIGHT WITH STEADY SSW WINDS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER WINDS REMAIN IN CHECK ON SATURDAY AS FRIDAY'S
UPPER LOW CURLS NORTH FROM UTAH TO WESTERN MONTANA. EVEN THOUGH A
SURFACE LOW REMAINS PARKED NEAR THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE ALL DAY,
850 MB WINDS VEER MORE SW WHICH WILL SWING THE DRYLINE OFF THE
CAPROCK AND THROUGH MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF OUR ROLLING PLAINS BY PEAK
HEATING SPARING US FROM A POTENTIALLY STORMY DRYLINE THREAT. HIGHS
SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 90S AREAWIDE ON 15-20
MPH SW BREEZES WITH MILD LOWS ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
DRYLINE RETREATS OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA. MORE HEAT AWAITS
ON SUNDAY AS SW FLOW ALOFT RELAXES AND HEIGHTS REBOUND NEARLY 60
METERS IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER MUCH OF TEXAS. THIS
ALONE MAY SQUASH ATTEMPTS AT STORMS ALONG THE LINGERING DRYLINE
ON SUNDAY, BEFORE THE DRYLINE WITHERS AWAY THEREAFTER AS GULF
MOISTURE EXPANDS OVER THE WHOLE OF WEST TX AND EASTERN NM UNDER
THE RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORMS EACH DAY
WITH NOCTURNAL EVENTS ALSO A CONSIDERATION GIVEN FAVORABLE WEAK
SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF PERSISTENT MCVS. GIVEN IMPROVED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, HIGH TEMPS WILL DECLINE INTO THE 80S BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...19
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