017
FXUS64 KLUB 301707
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1207 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1206 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
- MUCH WARMER, DRIER, AND BREEZIER SATURDAY WITH BRIEF CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON.
- HOT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
- COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN DEVELOPS TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WAS STILL MOVING OVERHEAD EVIDENT BY THE LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS STILL PRESENT WITH THE OCCASIONAL THUNDER STRIKE. THIS
FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUBSIDENCE MOVING OVERHEAD IN THE WAKE. A DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE DRYLINE WILL MIX TO ROUGHLY
THE TEXAS HIGHWAY 70 CORRIDOR. CONVERGENCE ON THIS FEATURE WILL NOT
BE INSIGNIFICANT LIKE WE HAVE SEEN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. THE LARGER
SCALE ASCENT FROM THE UPPER JET WILL BE RACING OFF NORTHEASTWARD
LATE THIS AFTERNOON PRESENTING A BRIEF WINDOW FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
YESTERDAY, BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL STRUGGLE TO OCCUR EAST OF THE
DRYLINE DUE TO THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER, WE
SHOULD STILL SEE INSTABILITY CLIMB TO 1500-2000 J/KG EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH MODERATE SHEAR AROUND
30KT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LACK OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING MAY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED FROM ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FURTHERMORE, ANY STORMS WOULD BE TRANSITORY
IN THE FA WITH A QUICK NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT INTO NORTH TEXAS AND
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
FOR SUNDAY, SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OF 30-40M ARE PROGGED
AND DESPITE THIS, CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. A DRYLINE WILL AGAIN
SHARPEN UP AND MIX EASTWARD OFF THE CAPROCK BUT WITH MUCH LESS
CONVERGENCE ON THIS FEATURE THAN PROGGED FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE, A
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MIXED LAYER
INSTABILITY HIGHER WITH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG.
INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON BUT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. THEREFORE, WE WILL RELUCTANTLY
RETAIN LOW END NBM POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STARTING MONDAY LASTING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK FOR EACH AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN BACKED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY BUT A RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER THE STATE OF TEXAS. THIS WILL KEEP MOST AVAILABLE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. BROAD
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP MOISTURE IN THE
AREA BUT WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR STRONG BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING. THIS RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK KEEPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE BUT WITH LESS
INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL IMPROVE THROUGH
THE WEEK LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT
FAVOR ANY ONE PARTICULAR AREA FOR CONVECTION BUT A FEW EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ALOFT MAY BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME
AFTERNOONS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
CONTINUING VFR AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD. SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KLBB
AND KPVW THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY ABOUT MIDDAY. LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE WILL BE A WINDOW FOR ISOLATED
TSRA NEAR KCDS, BUT TERMINAL IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...30
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page