510
FXUS64 KLUB 311715
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1215 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
A NICE AND PLEASANT SUNDAY REMAINS ON TRACK. CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF STATES. WITH
THE CWA SITTING BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER DISTURBANCES, SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SITTING
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHT THICKNESS INCREASES DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGING
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A FEW MORE DEGREES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A DRYLINE CURRENTLY SITTING PART WAY THROUGH THE
CWA. DEWPOINTS OF UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BEHIND THE
DRYLINE AND IN THE 60S ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE. MODELS INDICATE THE DRYLINE WILL SHIFT A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING JUST SOUTHEAST
OF LUBBOCK. FORCING FROM CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND THE
PASSING OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS, HOWEVER WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING DRIER LOWER
LEVELS, HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO 1700 J/KG MAKE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
THE MAINS HAZARDS EXPECTED FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS STRONG
WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE. ALL STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS PASS, THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET WITH A DECENT GRADIENT OF LOW TEMPERATURES.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE UP TO LOWER 70S OVER THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE
CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING HINDERING
RADIATIONAL COOLING. ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD WEST OVER THE REGION KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO LOWER 100S. EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN GULF MOISTURE FILLING IN ON
THE LOWER LEVELS. DESPITE THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGING
KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION DRY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH NOT MUCH TO NOTE IN TERMS OF INSTABILITY OR
FORCING. HOWEVER, A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO AND SOME SMALL HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANY STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE REGION
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING DAILY STORM CHANCES AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST. UPPER RIDGING WILL
PREVAIL OVERHEAD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE GETTING PUSHED EAST AS
AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LOW WILL SPIN OVER THE BORDER
BETWEEN CANADA AND MONTANA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON ALL
LEVELS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW USHERING IN GULF MOISTURE AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS. SIMILAR TO MONDAY, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO UPSLOPE
FLOW AND EXPAND ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD
STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH IN
TERMS OF INSTABILITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, THEREFORE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE LOW. HOWEVER, WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE CURRENT
STORM TOTAL QPF RANGING FROM 1" TO JUST ABOVE 2". HOWEVER, DESPITE
THE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ON ALL LEVELS, THIS FORECASTER IS NOT
CONFIDENT ON OVER 2" OF RAINFALL. WE COULD SEE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION BY THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION FINALLY TRACKS NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL CONUS AND LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING FILLS IN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, WITH PROLONGED STORMS AND CLOUD COVER, WE WILL GET A
REPRIEVE FROM THE HOT TEMPERATURES BY MID-WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01
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