062
FXUS64 KLUB 011116
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
616 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE MONDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
- DAILY RAIN CHANCES WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
STORMS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN
THE EARLY MORNING TIMEFRAME AND SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSIST AND MILD LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S REMAIN EXPECTED. HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY UNDER A STRONG UPPER RIDGE, WITH
HIGHS DROPPING ONLY A FEW DEGREES BUT HOLDING IN THE MID 90S. THE
RIDGE WILL KEEP THINGS CAPPED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, HOWEVER AN
UPPER WAVE AND SOME SEMBLANCE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PASS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH THE PLENTIFUL
DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY, SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHEST
CHANCES WOULD BE ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER. WHILE FORCING IS
SOMEWHAT LACKING, A PER USUAL A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. THESE SHOULD TAPER OFF AROUND SUNSET WITH SE WINDS
PERSISTING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AGAIN MODERATING LOW IN THE 60S.
AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY GRADUALLY DISPLACING THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND LEADING
TO UPPER PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING INTO OUR REGION. SE SURFACE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE-DAY. HIGHS WILL AGAIN
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
FAIRLY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION SIGNATURES BOTH IN THE UPPER AND
LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND/OR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, HOWEVER IT REMAINS A BIT TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT EXACT LOCATIONS. THE UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BRINGING ALMOST NO CHANGE TO THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN. SE SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY UNCHANGED AS
WELL OVER THIS TIME PERIOD AND AS SUCH HIGHER POPS HAVE BEEN
RETAINED. TEMPERATURES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY COOL TO NEAR 80 ON THE
CAPROCK AND MID 80S OFF THE CAPROCK. CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES
THEREAFTER, HOWEVER BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW,
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN OFF THE CAPROCK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. ISOLATED
TSRA WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR AND WEST OF KLBB AND KPVW AFTER 20Z,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS TOO
LOW FOR A THUNDER MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS ISSUANCE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...30
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