242
FXUS64 KLUB 011713
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1213 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
- SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.
- STORM CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
AFTER A MUCH NEEDED RAINY EVENING YESTERDAY, TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
HOT AND MOSTLY DRY. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW
THE WIND FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE UPPER LEVELS, A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS EASTERN CONUS WHILE A
SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH SITS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER
RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CWA THROUGH
TODAY. THICKNESS INCREASES DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES HOT TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED AND MOIST UPSLOPE
SURFACE FLOW, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. WITH MODERATE CAPE UP TO 1300
J/KG, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WITH HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED, THE MAIN HAZARD POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS, HOWEVER MODERATE HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
ONCE STORMS CLEAR, THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE PLEASANT WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. TUESDAY WILL BE THE FIRST DAY OF A COOL DOWN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. ON THE UPPER LEVELS, A TROUGH WILL BUILD ALONG
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES DECREASE ON TUESDAY,
IT WILL BE ONLY SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER RIDGING WILL IMPACT THE UPPER
LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 90S. WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST MID-TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL USHER IN MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM UPSLOPE
FLOW AND A PASSING UPPER SHORTWAVE, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
RETURN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAMS INDICATE STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NM JUST BEFORE SUNSET AND EXPAND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH LITTLE
INSTABILITY, SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW WITH THIS ROUND OF STORMS,
HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO AND SOME SMALL
HAIL. WITH PWAT VALUES UP TO 1.5", WE COULD SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT BEGAN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP JUST
EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FORCING
FROM THIS UPPER SHORTWAVE AND LINGERING MOISTURE WILL PROLONG STORM
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY ONWARD, MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. ECMWF HAS A FASTER PROGRESSION WITH
THE TROUGH PASSING OVER THE CWA FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH CENTRAL
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS HAS A SLOWER PROGRESSION WITH THE TROUGH
STALLING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE WEEKEND AND FINALLY PASSING
OVERHEAD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF PROGRESSION WOULD PROLONG
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE GFS TRACK WOULD
CUT OFF MOISTURE KEEPING MUCH OF THE WEEKEND DRY. IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, THE MODELS SHOULD COME TO A BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, HAVE LEFT NBM
POPS AS IS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE
EXTENDED IS LOW, HOWEVER WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE THE
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL. THE STORM TOTAL QPF HAS DECREASED COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECASTS, HOWEVER IT SHOWS MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE 1
TO 1.75" WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, WITH THE PROLONGED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED COVERAGE, NO
MENTION WAS MADE IN THE TAF AT THE MOMENT. THE KLBB AND KPVW
TERMINALS WILL SEE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF ISOLATED STORMS WITH THE
PEAK BETWEEN 22Z THROUGH 02Z. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01
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