977
FXUS64 KLUB 021723
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1223 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
- WARM WITH CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- COOLER WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS LOW, ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL,
GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY ANY
STORM.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING DISPLAYS CONVECTION ONGOING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
AS A RESULT FROM THIS, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEGAN TO CROSS INTO
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ALLOWING WINDS TO
BACK OUT OF THE NE LATE THIS MORNING. SYNOPTICALLY, NOT MUCH OF A
CHANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STILL REMAINING ON HOLD ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION, WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD LATE
THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS A RESULT, STEERING FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY, ALTHOUGH REMAINING RELATIVELY WEEK
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. OVERALL SURFACE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THEM, DESPITE THE LINGERING OUTFLOW, ALLOWING
FOR INCREASED GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS PROGGED
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK REGIONS.
GIVEN GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS NEAR AND JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS, IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO
THE WIND AND CLEAR SKIES, WILL ALLOW FOR QUITE THE WARM-UP THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH POTENTIALLY TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT BEING ATTAINED
ACROSS THE LOW-LYING ROLLING PLAINS.
SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS TRACKING THROUGH THE MAIN FLOW ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO, COMBINED WITH RICH LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE,
AND THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WILL WORK TO GENERATE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST. CAMS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE
TX/NM STATE LINE BY LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THIS FORECASTER IS A BIT SKEPTICAL ON THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN THE WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT, WHICH
WOULD PREVENT STORMS FROM REACHING OUR AREA. BY THE LOOKS OF IT,
THERE IS A 50/50 SPLIT BETWEEN HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WHETHER
PRECIPITATION REACHES OUR AREA AND GIVEN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY STATED
ABOVE, DOUBTS ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY ON
PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT, DEFINITE NBM POPS SEEMS A BIT
GENEROUS, SO WILL LIMIT TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION. ONE
THING TO NOTE, DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LINGERING OUTFLOW IS SETUP
THIS AFTERNOON, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO FIRE OFF THIS
AREA OF WEAK CONVERGENCE. ADDITIONALLY, WARM TEMPERATURES AND
HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL WORK TO DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT, WITH
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG. SUGGESTING STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY
BECOME SEVERE, DESPITE THE WEAK SHEAR IN PLACE, WITH QUARTER
SIZED HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CAPROCK THROUGH DAYBREAK. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY OVERSPREAD BY DAYBREAK WHICH ALONG WITH ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
TO MID 80S. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IF PRECIPITATION IS LIMITED
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING THE CLOUD DECK, IF ANY, WILL DIMINISH
QUICKER AND RESULT IN A FASTER WARM UP. IF THIS HAPPENS, AREAS
ACROSS THE CAPROCK COULD SEE WARMER HIGHS THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECASTED. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR,
AS A STRONGER H5 DISTURBANCES TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. TOWARDS THE LATE EVENING, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS THAT TRY TO MOVE INTO AREAS ACROSS THE CAPROCK FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH WEAK STEERING FLOW ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO
LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT OF THIS. STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP
AND/OR MOVE IN WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST, WHERE THEY MAY GROW
UPSCALE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE LLJ BEGINS TO RAMP UP. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE
DECENT INSTABILITY IN PLACE, WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
SERVING AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. AS STORMS GROW UPSCALE OVERNIGHT,
THE THREAT WILL THEN TURN TO MORE OF A FLASH FLOODING CONCERN
GIVEN PWATS AROUND 1" TO 1.5".
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WARM WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN THEME
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE LATE THIS MORNING. BY THE START OF
THE EXTENDED, WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAK DOWN
AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATING EAST INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA. AN H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE MAIN FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE PARENT
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY, ATTEMPTING TO TAP
INTO THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH TRACKS
IN LATER FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY, NONETHELESS CONFIDENCE
STILL REMAINS LOW WITH THE RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCE IN EVOLUTION AND
TIMING. DESPITE THIS, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS STILL HINTING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THEREFORE HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE NBM MENTIONABLE POPS AS IS FOR THE
TIME BEING. UNTIL WE SEE BETTER INDICATION FROM GUIDANCE IN
REGARDS TO TIMING AND COVERAGE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK WEAK
THROUGH THE EXTENDED, WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR STORMS BEING THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING GIVEN THE RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWATS
ABOVE AN INCH IN PLACE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY
SUNDAY WITH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE BACK IN AND AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BUT CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THE
MOMENT. HIGHER CHANCES OF STORMS WILL EMERGE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. KLBB AND KPVW STAND
THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING ANY STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IF
STORMS DO PASS OVER THESE TERMINALS, BRIEF MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
COULD OCCUR.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...01
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