493
FXUS64 KLUB 030443
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1143 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1142 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN.
- COOLER WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS LOW, ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL,
GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY ANY
STORM.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FA ALONG VARIOUS REMNANT
BOUNDARIES, ONE STRETCHING FROM MORTON SOUTHEAST TO POST, AND THE
OTHER FROM HAPPY TO TURKEY. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A VERY VISIBLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS QUICKLY
PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THOUGH ACTIVITY
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HAS BEE QUIET FOR THE PAST TWO HOURS, STORMS ARE
NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BEHIND IT AS PROGGED BY THE CAMS. CAMS HAVE
GONE BACK AND FORTH THROUGH THE EVENING WITH HOW FAR EAST CONVECTION
WILL PUSH. THE SOMEWHAT GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN TO DISSIPATE WHEN
REACHING THE I27/US87 CORRIDOR. THE OUTFLOW TO OUR NORTHWEST,
HOWEVER, IS MOVING QUICKER THAN FORECAST WITH STORM COVERAGE ALSO
BEING GREATER, THEREFORE POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ACROSS THE FA AND
INCLUDE AT LEAST A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. DESPITE AN OVERALL LOW THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS, GUSTS TO 50
MPH WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE ORDINARY AND SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH. THE THREAT FOR HAIL IS LOW. BRIEF, HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO WAIN BY SUNRISE, THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID MORNING. WE SHOULD
SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND
POSSIBLY LEAD TO WIDER STORM COVERAGE. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED OVER THE PRESENT TIME BUT STILL MARGINAL. SOME
STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 70 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, THOUGH STORMS WILL
OVERALL BE DISORGANIZED. THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS SHOULD EXIT TO
OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT BEFORE MORE STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CAPROCK AND WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS AS THE LLJ RAMPS UP ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WARM WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN THEME
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE. BY THE START OF THE EXTENDED,
WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAK DOWN AS THE CENTER
OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSLATING EAST INTO PORTIONS
OF NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA. AN H5 SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITHIN THE MAIN FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE PARENT TROUGH WILL
TRANSLATE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY, ATTEMPTING TO TAP INTO THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH TRACKS IN LATER
FRIDAY. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY, NONETHELESS CONFIDENCE STILL
REMAINS LOW WITH THE RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCE IN EVOLUTION AND
TIMING. DESPITE THIS, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS STILL HINTING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THEREFORE HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE NBM MENTIONABLE POPS AS IS FOR THE
TIME BEING. UNTIL WE SEE BETTER INDICATION FROM GUIDANCE IN
REGARDS TO TIMING AND COVERAGE. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS LOOK WEAK
THROUGH THE EXTENDED, WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR STORMS BEING THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING GIVEN THE RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWATS
ABOVE AN INCH IN PLACE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY
SUNDAY WITH DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE BACK IN AND AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND WILL MAINLY IMPACT KLBB/KPVW AND POINTS
WEST. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE RATHER SLOW-MOVING AND MAY RESULT IN
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS. OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION, VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN
CONVECTION AFTER SUNRISE, ADDITIONAL TS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...30
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