301
FXUS64 KLUB 121111
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
611 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SATURDAY EVENING.
- A BRIEF BREAK IN THE HEAT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A COMPLICATED
FORECAST WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE LIKELY TO BE HANGING AROUND
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH-RES MODELS DO PICK UP ON THESE BOUNDARIES BUT THE
PREDICTABILITY OF THE LOCATION OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS VERY LOW. THE
PREVAILING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT
LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD. WHAT IS KNOWN IS THAT HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BRINGING SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT OVER HEAD. A
WEAK JET MAX ON THE ORDER OF ONLY 50KT IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE, SEEMINGLY DETACHED FROM ANY MEANINGFUL FEATURE, WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD. MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAY
GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDER A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE. THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL FAVOR AREAS ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS OTHERWISE, THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL REMAIN VERY
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW ON THURSDAY. NEAR SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE
VERY HIGH WITH LOWER 70S OFF THE CAPROCK AND MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL ALSO
LEAD TO COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND THEREFORE LESS BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING. MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY MAY BE SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY
WERE ON THURSDAY WITH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 3000-4000 J/KG. ANY
UPDRAFTS THAT CAN EXCEED THE LFC WOULD BE VERY ROBUST UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS BUT AGAIN THERE IS LITTLE FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TROPOSPHERE. WE DO NOT SEE WINDS ABOVE 20KT UNTIL YOU GET ABOVE
400MB OR SO. THEREFORE, LITTLE STRUCTURE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STORMS
BUT THE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO LEAD TO TALL
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE SECONDARY THREAT OF STORMS FOR FRIDAY WILL EXIST LATER IN THE
EVENING. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
NEW MEXICO. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO MOVING
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM
THERE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY MIXED ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. AN AREA OF
MINIMAL CIN CLOSE TO THE STATE LINE MAY KEEP STORMS MOVING INTO THE
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. INCREASING CIN FARTHER TO THE
EAST MAY PROVE DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES FARTHER
INTO WEST TEXAS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
A SOMEWHAT WET FORECAST REMAINS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FA BY EARLY SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BE ANOTHER PASSIVE FRONT WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AND
WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AMPLE MOISTURE AND
WEAKNESSES IN THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH WILL AID SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE OVERALL
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW WITH BULK SHEAR MAXING OUT AT
25 KNOTS OR LESS, THOUGH WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF THE
FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT STALLS AND STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN.
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY AND WILL HELP PUSH
THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION AND PRECIP CHANCES WITH IT. THE
FORECAST MID TO LATE WEEK THEN LOOKS TO BE RATHER QUIET YET WARM.
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST. WHILE THIS WILL HELP US HOLD ON TO SURFACE MOISTURE, AN
OVERHEAD UPPER HIGH WILL KEEP MOST PRECIP CHANCES AT BAY, THOUGH
SOME WIDELY ISOLATED DIURNAL STORMS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
MVFR CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL IN AT KPVW THIS MORNING, WHILE
PROGRESS ON LOW CEILINGS TO LUBBOCK IS A BIT SLOWER THAN
ANTICIPATED. NONETHELESS, WE STILL EXPECT MFVR CIGS TO FILL IN IN
THE VICINITY OF KLBB AROUND 13Z. MEANWHILE AT KCDS, CONFIDENCE IN
LOW CIGS REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WITH MOST OBS NEAR THE AIRPORT KEEPING
THE CLOUD DECK AT VFR. LOW CEILINGS SHOULD CLEAR BEFORE THE
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAY EXPECTED.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...12
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