520
FXUS64 KLUB 122313
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
613 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EVENING STORMS IN THE FAR SW TEXAS PANHANDLE
TONIGHT.
- HOTTER SATURDAY WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
- MUCH COOLER AND WETTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HOTTER
AND MOSTLY DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
AMPLE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S WAS FOUND OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION AT NOON, WITH THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS GENERALLY
NEAR AND SOUTH OF A FRONT DRAPED FROM MULESHOE-LUBBOCK-GUTHRIE.
THIS FRONT IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO RETREAT AS A WARM FRONT AND BY
LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE NORTH OF I40 LEAVING US LARGELY DEVOID
OF ANY FOCUS FOR ASCENT, ESPECIALLY WITH PESKY MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
COURTESY OF A H5 HIGH OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN. ONE EXCEPTION TO
THIS STORY CONCERNS A LARGE, WESTWARD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THAT COULD SNEAK INTO OUR ROLLING PLAINS AFTER
5 PM. SOME CAMS ARE VERY BULLISH IN RENEWING CONVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES WEST, BUT OBSERVATIONS ARE
PROVING LESS DRAMATIC AND AS SUCH WE'LL KEEP POPS SILENT THROUGH
THE EVENING OFF THE CAPROCK. FARTHER WEST MEANWHILE, UPSLOPE
CONVECTION IN EASTERN NM SHOULD MAKE SOME STRIDES TOWARD OUR
BORDER COUNTIES, BUT EVEN THIS IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY GIVEN POOR
STEERING WINDS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGE EFFECTIVELY
BUFFETING THESE STORMS AWAY FROM OUR AREA. KEPT A SLIVER OF 20
POPS THIS EVENING IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE COUNTIES WHERE THE
EFFECTS OF THE RIDGING ARE COMPARABLY WEAKER.
THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS FOR SATURDAY ALLOWING LEE TROUGHING TO
EMERGE AND BOOST OUR SSW WINDS INTO SLIGHTLY BREEZIER TERRITORY AT
TIMES. ALONG WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN FRIDAY, HIGHS WILL REBOUND
INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S AS DEWPOINTS MIX OUT INTO THE 50S AND LOWER
60S BY THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE FAVORED TO DEVELOP INITIALLY IN
NORTHEAST NM AND THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW, ALL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT EXITING CO
AND KS BY SUNSET. AS CONVECTION GROWS UPSCALE THANKS TO
CONSOLIDATING OUTFLOWS AND THE ADVANCING FRONT, POPS WILL RAMP UP
TOWARD SUNSET ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE EXPANDING OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT/OUTFLOWS.
TEND TO BELIEVE THE REDUCED QPF COVERAGE OF THE CAMS MORE THAN
THE COARSER RES MODELS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THESE POST-FRONTAL
STORMS WON'T HAVE A LLJ OR MUCH IN THE WAY OF BACKGROUND FORCING
TO WORK WITH, SO NBM'S GENEROUS POPS WERE SCALED LOWER ACROSS THE
BOARD.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS COOL AND UNSETTLED AS WE CONTEND WITH
MOIST NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE HEELS OF SATURDAY NIGHT'S FRONT.
RAIN CHANCES LINGER THROUGHOUT SUNDAY, BUT THE MAIN WINDOW FOR
ASCENT SHOULD OPEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURLS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN CYCLONIC NW FLOW.
DEWPOINTS DRY OUT ON MONDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH AS A SURFACE HIGH
SETS UP SHOP OVER THE LOCAL AREA, SO RAIN CHANCES COME TO A HALT
BY THE AFTERNOON. HOTTER TEMPS RETURN BY MIDWEEK UNTIL ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WITH PRECIP CHANCES ENTERS THE PICTURE LATER IN THE
WEEK VIA ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF A
LARGER TROUGH ANCHORED TO A HUDSON BAY LOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALL TERMINALS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM EASTERN
NEW MEXICO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
ANY TAF SITE. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT KLBB
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...01
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