950
FXUS64 KLUB 130516
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1216 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1214 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
- HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SATURDAY EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT.
- MUCH COOLER AND WETTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN MID-WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY REMAIN IN THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DRIFT TO THE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FOLLOWING
LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
HIGHER CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL EMERGE SATURDAY EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO
THE RATON MESA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO ROUND THE SPRAWLING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE SOUTHERN US. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CONVECTION ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/COLD POOL INTERACTIONS MAY ALLOW STORMS TO GROW
MORE UPSCALE INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME MAKING IT FARTHER SOUTH OUT OF THE PANHANDLES AS INSTABILITY
WILL WANE QUITE A BIT DURING THE EVENING. NONETHELESS, ANY STORMS
THAT DO MAKE IT INTO THE FA WILL PRIMARILY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH A LESSER THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO WEST TEXAS ON SUNDAY
AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF EASTERN
NEW MEXICO MAY DRIFT INTO THE AREA AGAIN ON SUNDAY EVENING. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL OOZE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY DRYING OUT CONDITIONS AND
ENDING CONVECTIVE CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE VERY COOL WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES. BEYOND MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES ON TUESDAY WITH VERY HOT TEMPERATURES BY MID-WEEK. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT AROUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BRING RENEWED CONVECTIVE
CHANCES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. VCTS MAY
TRY TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO KCDS EARLY THIS MORNING, HOWEVER WE
EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO WANE BEFORE REACHING THE TERMINAL.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF STRATUS CREEPING INTO
KLBB AROUND DAYBREAK, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAR TOO LOW FOR
ANY TAF MENTION.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...12
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