744
FXUS64 KLUB 131744
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1244 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT.
- MUCH COOLER AND WETTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN MID-WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHERN
KANSAS/COLORADO AS OF NOON. FROPA INTO THE FA IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES UNTIL AROUND 06Z DUE TO ITS SLOW PASSIVE NATURE.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. LATE AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS NEW
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO JOIN WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AND BEGIN PUSHING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPPER
LIFT FROM AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO FROM ARIZONA WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
FRONT. THE ISSUE WILL BECOME HOW FAR SOUTHWARD WILL CONVECTION PUSH
BEFORE LOOSING UPPER SUPPORT AND BEING OUTRAN BY OUTFLOW. CURRENT
CAMS SUGGEST OUR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD SEE STORMS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BEFORE THEY GUST OUT AND DISSIPATE AROUND SUNRISE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE LEFT IT THEIR WAKE WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
STRUGGLING TO REACH INTO THE 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AS SURFACE FLOW REMAINS UPSLOPE AND OUT
OF THE EAST AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
THIS MAY PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE CASE HAS BEEN
OVER THE PAST WEEK OR TWO, THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS WILL BE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WITH A MINOR THREAT FOR HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
MOST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
FA MONDAY. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY AND, WITH HELP FORM AN OVERHEAD TROUGH, WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE AND KEEP MONDAY COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE 70S. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. SUMMER WILL ONCE AGAIN TRY TO SHOW ITSELF WITH HIGHS
REACHING OVER THE CENTURY MARK AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY. MODELS PORTRAY
THIS SURFACE LOW AS BEING THE START OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY. THE GFS IS HAS A STRONGER
FRONT THAT SOME OTHER GLOBAL MODELS, BUT THERE IS CONSENSUS ON SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BEING POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE
LACK OF STRONG UPPER LIFT AT THE CURRENT TIME, COVERAGE MAY BE MORE
LIMITED THAN WHAT MODELS ARE SHOWING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
VFR WITH BREEZY SSW WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO SHRA AND TS TONIGHT
WITH A COLD FRONT, PRIMARILY AT PVW AND CDS, FOLLOWED BY
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRATUS MAY FALL TO
IFR AT TIMES AT PVW AND LBB AFTER 12Z.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...93
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