394
FXUS64 KLUB 132347
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
647 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 635 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT.
- MUCH COOLER AND WETTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN MID-WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHERN
KANSAS/COLORADO AS OF NOON. FROPA INTO THE FA IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES UNTIL AROUND 06Z DUE TO ITS SLOW PASSIVE NATURE.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. LATE AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS NEW
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO JOIN WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AND BEGIN PUSHING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPPER
LIFT FROM AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO FROM ARIZONA WILL AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
FRONT. THE ISSUE WILL BECOME HOW FAR SOUTHWARD WILL CONVECTION PUSH
BEFORE LOOSING UPPER SUPPORT AND BEING OUTRAN BY OUTFLOW. CURRENT
CAMS SUGGEST OUR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD SEE STORMS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BEFORE THEY GUST OUT AND DISSIPATE AROUND SUNRISE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE LEFT IT THEIR WAKE WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
STRUGGLING TO REACH INTO THE 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN
ZONES. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AS SURFACE FLOW REMAINS UPSLOPE AND OUT
OF THE EAST AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
THIS MAY PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE CASE HAS BEEN
OVER THE PAST WEEK OR TWO, THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS WILL BE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WITH A MINOR THREAT FOR HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
MOST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
FA MONDAY. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY AND, WITH HELP FROM AN OVERHEAD TROUGH, WILL KEEP CLOUD
COVER IN PLACE AND KEEP MONDAY COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE 70S. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY AS
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH SURFACE WINDS VEER TO
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. SUMMER WILL ONCE AGAIN TRY TO SHOW
ITSELF WITH HIGHS REACHING OVER THE CENTURY MARK AREA WIDE
WEDNESDAY. MODELS PORTRAY THIS SURFACE LOW AS BEING THE START OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY. THE GFS IS HAS A STRONGER FRONT THAT SOME OTHER GLOBAL
MODELS, BUT THERE IS CONSENSUS ON SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
BEING POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG UPPER
LIFT AT THE CURRENT TIME, COVERAGE MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN WHAT
MODELS ARE SHOWING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AT 2330Z WILL PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT, AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO A NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT, SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FROPA.
KPVW AND KCDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTION
BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE ISN'T VERY
HIGH, SO HAVE HANDLED THE POSSIBILITY WITH VCTS/VCSH AND PROB30
GROUPS. KLBB WILL SEE THE IMPROVING RAIN/STORM CHANCES TOWARD AND
AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY, WHEN ALL THE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE CEILINGS FALLING TO MVFR (AND POSSIBLY IFR). AREAS OF
SHOWERS, PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AS LOW CLOUDS LIKELY HOLD FIRM.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...23
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