220
FXUS64 KLUB 141119
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
619 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 614 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
- MUCH COOLER WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
- HOTTER AND DRIER MID-WEEK FOLLOWED BY MODEST COOLING AND RETURNING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
SATURDAY BROUGHT A HOT DAY, WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
TOPPING OUT IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE EVEN BRIEFLY TOUCHED THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
THANKFULLY, A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AS OF LATE SATURDAY EVENING, THE FRONT
WAS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE,
AND WHEN AIDED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT, THE EFFECTIVE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK
INTO AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. FORCING ALONG AND ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE, IN
COMBINATION WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST TROPOSPHERE AND A WEAK
EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE, WILL SUPPORT IMPROVING RAIN/STORM
CHANCES ALONG AND BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT/OUTFLOW. A MODEST
SOUTHERLY LLJ WILL VEER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, WHICH WHEN COUPLED
WITH THE DIURNAL MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY, MAKE THE LATE-NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING RAIN/STORM COVERAGE LESS CERTAIN. REGARDLESS, MOST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION, FAVORING OUR
NORTHERN ZONES, THOUGH 12Z SUNDAY. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL
EXPAND SOUTHWARD OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE GREATEST RISK WITH THE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, THANKS TO EFFICIENT RAIN
RATES WITHIN THE HIGH-PWAT AIR, THOUGH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
PERHAPS A FEW POCKETS OF SMALL HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER
CORES.
THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE FA BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING, TIED TO THE SURFACE FRONT
WHICH WILL STRETCH FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE BIG COUNTRY.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO,
AND WITH THE MID-LEVEL FLOW VEERING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY, WE'LL HAVE
TO SEE IF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY CAN ORGANIZE AND MAINTAIN ITSELF LONG
ENOUGH TO MAKE IT INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN ZONE LATE SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON THIS POSSIBILITY, AND WITH
RELATIVELY LOW-END DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MEAGER INSTABILITY THANKS TO
THE COOLER AIR, CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH ON THIS. THAT SAID,
LOCATIONS NEAR THE TX/NM LINE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
EXPERIENCING THE LATE NIGHT CONVECTION.
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER, ALONG WITH AREAS OF RAIN,
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM MOVING MUCH ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS 15-25
DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY. MOST LOCATIONS, OTHER THAN THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES, WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S. A COOL JUNE NIGHT
WILL FOLLOW, WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE CAPROCK
AND LOWER TO MID-60S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO OUR WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN
ZONE, THOUGH RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY WILL
TEND TO LIMIT THE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE TO MAINTAIN THE STORMS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE RETURN TO THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSE TO AVERAGE, IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S. THEREAFTER, WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
HOTTEST DAY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK AS DRIER AIR AND SUBTROPICAL
RIDGING ALOFT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT. A SHORTWAVE
CRUISING ACROSS THE MIDWEST, EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
A BROAD TROUGH/LOW, WILL SEND THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
ON THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SUPPLY MODEST COOLING WHILE ALSO
RENEWING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOCALLY, DESPITE MINIMAL TO NO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT ON FRIDAY, WITH
HOTTER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS, TRACKING SOUTHWARD. NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED AROUND 15-20G30KTS.
THESE WINDS WILL CALM SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE MORNING TO AROUND 15KTS
AT ALL TERMINALS. LOW STRATUS HAS ALSO BEEN DETECTED MOVING INTO
PORTIONS OF THE REGION, EXPECTING ALL TERMINALS TO DROP TO IFR
JUST AFTER 12Z. THERE IS A CHANCE CEILINGS WILL LIFT AT KCDS THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER KPVW AND KLBB ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOCKED IN.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION, A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF
KLBB THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS
MOVING INTO KPVW LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...12
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