683
FXUS64 KLUB 141828
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
128 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 114 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
- CLOUDY AND MOIST TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
- A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
NIGHT, MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 27.
- HOTTER AND DRIER BEGINNING TUESDAY, PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVERRUNNING COOL, MOIST, POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A WEAK T-STORM OR TWO, MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS. DESPITE THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY,
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WEAK CAA ON NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING THIS
EVENING, WILL CLOUDS FILLING IN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS UPPER-FLOW
BEGINS TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND WE GET SOME WAA ALONG THE OLD
ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
MONDAY MORNING, WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. IT'S STILL
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WE'LL CLEAR OUT IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT FORECAST
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S LOOK REASONABLE ASSUMING
PARTIAL CLEARING.
LATE MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD SPAWN
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST
CO/NORTHEAST NM. IT'S UNCERTAIN WHETHER OF NOT THIS COMPLEX WILL
SURVIVE THE TREK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NEW MEXICO PLAINS INTO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY AXIS, BUT THE FORCING ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUSTAIN IT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. IF IT DOES DEVELOP AND MOVE
INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT, IT COULD BRING SOME STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
THE WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
THE 90S DESPITE PERHAPS A CLOUDY START. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ALOFT BUT THERE'S NO INDICATION OF ANY SHORTWAVES
UPSTREAM AND STORM CHANCES ARE VERY LOW.
BY WEDNESDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE BUT WEAKEN, AND
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRE-FRONTAL/LEE-TROUGH AND AN
AREA OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SPREADING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO WEST TEXAS THAT IF IT MATERIALIZES WILL REALLY CAUSE TEMPS TO
SOAR. GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPS RANGE FROM AROUND 100F TO 107F...POSSIBLY
REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWING ON THURSDAY SHOULD TAKE
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW 100F, BUT IT WILL REMAIN HOT. WE'LL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY T-STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT BUILDING HEIGHTS
SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY. THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED TOWARD STRONGER RIDGING OVER THE AREA HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND VERY WARM/ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE DOES SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR AT CDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE IMPROVING TO LOW END VFR. PREVAILING IFR WITH INTERMITTENT
MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT LBB AND PVW THROUGH 22Z BEFORE
IMPROVING TO LOW END VFR. THERE WILL STILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES
FOR MVFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS AFTER 22Z, BUT VFR IS EXPECTED TO
OVERALL PREVAIL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...51
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