958
FXUS64 KLUB 150519
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1219 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1217 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
- SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING ON
THE CAPROCK.
- HOTTER AND DRIER BEGINNING TUESDAY, WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
COOL AND MOIST NORTHEASTERLIES PREVAILED LATE THIS EVENING BEHIND
A COLD FRONT SANDWICHED BETWEEN I20 AND I10. A TEMPORARY BREAK
FROM EARLIER LOW CLOUDS LOOKS TO COME TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
A LAYER OF STRATUS IN EASTERN NM ADVECTS OUR WAY WITH A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACCOMPANYING THIS
WAVE STAND A CHANCE OF SURVIVING THEIR JOURNEY TO THE TEXAS SOUTH
PLAINS THROUGH DAYBREAK, OR PERHAPS REDEVELOPING HERE AS THE WAVE
ENCOUNTERS DEEPER MOISTURE. WEAK SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING THIS WAVE
SHOULD SECURE SOME SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS NEAR 80. A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEPART INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS BY THIS TIME
ALLOWING A MODEST INSTABILITY AXIS TO FOCUS NEAR THE TX AND NM
BORDER. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT UPSLOPE STORMS IN
NORTHEAST NM WILL SURVIVE THEIR TREK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING
AS THEY BENEFIT FROM IMPROVED SOUTHERLY SFC-850 MOISTURE ADVECTION
THAT SUSTAINS MLCAPES OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG ON THE CAPROCK.
GIVEN MODELS OFTEN STRUGGLE IN THESE PARTS WITH WEAKLY-FORCED
CONVECTION IN NW FLOW (THIS LAST OCCURRED ON JUNE 6TH), POPS WERE
RAISED MONDAY EVENING ON THE CAPROCK. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY EITHER DECAYS OR EXITS
THE SOUTH PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
DRIER AND HOTTER WEATHER BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY AS 850-700 MB WINDS
OBTAIN A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT AND ADVECT A DOME OF DESERT AIR OUR
WAY, ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 105-109 ARE
LIKELY FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK. FORTUNATELY, A COLD FRONT REMAINS
IN THE OFFING BY THURSDAY, BUT THIS MAY STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE
MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES GIVEN HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD AHEAD OF A
CLOSED HIGH PROGGED TO SET UP OVER OUR REGION BY FRIDAY. LOW CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME OFF THE CAPROCK ON
THURSDAY WITH CHANCES EXPANDING ELSEWHERE FOR FRIDAY AS MOISTURE
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH. HIGHS RETURN TO THEIR USUAL TOASTY
READINGS NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS MOISTURE DEPARTS AND THE UPPER RIDGE
LINGERS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
MVFR CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO CREEP INTO KPVW EARLY THIS MORNING,
WHERE THEY ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO IMPACT KLBB AROUND 08Z, AND
POTENTIALLY A LITTLE EARLIER. THERE REMAINS LESSER CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR CIGS AT KCDS, WHICH WOULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL AROUND
DAYBREAK. ADDITIONALLY, SOME MODELS ARE HINTING AT A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AROUND DAYBREAK, WHICH WOULD IMPACT ALL
TERMINALS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...12
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