269
FXUS64 KLUB 152315
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
615 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 613 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL
UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- HEAT ADVISORY LEVEL HEAT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LINGERING SHOWERS CLEARING OUT ACROSS
ROLLING PLAINS AND SHOULD BE OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR. NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DUE TO SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS WILL
AMPLIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING UPPER FLOW OVERHEAD TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL TRIGGER A LEE SURFACE LOW ACROSS CO THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE LEE SURFACE LOW AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
TOWARD NORTHEASTERN NM. UP FLOW SURFACE WINDS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK, AROUND
SUNSET. MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEASTERN NM BEFORE EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT SHEAR VALUES UP TO
40 KNOTS, THEREFORE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. WITH
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK THIS EVENING, COULD
ALSO EXPECT VIRGA SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 60-65 MPH. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH MUCAPE VALUES UP TO
1200 J/KG. ALL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OUT AROUND MIDNIGHT. FROM
THERE, THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD BE QUIET WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. TUESDAY WILL START OUT DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY AND PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY, WARMING HIGHS INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE REGION. A
DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO STALL ON THE CAPROCK JUST INSIDE THE TEXAS
STATE LINE TUESDAY EVENING. SOME MODELS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE AFTER SUNSET. NBM CAME IN WITH
LOW POPS, THEREFORE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE MANUALLY ADDED TO AREAS
ON THE CAPROCK AND THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE MODELS
INDICATE STORMS WILL DEVELOP.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL START OFF WITH A HOT HOT WEDNESDAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO
DEAMPLIFY WHILE A SECONDARY TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. TO THE WEST, SLIGHT RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER NM. THIS WILL
KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THICKNESS INCREASES
THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGING AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY WILL HEAT TEMPERATURES UP TO
THE TRIPLE DIGITS WITH MUCH OF THE REGION MOST LIKELY REACH HEAT
ADVISORY TEMPERATURES. CAN EXPECT A HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED IN THE NEAR
FUTURE. LUCKILY, THESE HOT TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST PAST WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN A WIDE RANGE OF HIGHS FOR THE DAY THURSDAY. HIGHS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL ONLY REACH UPPER
80S WHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVEL. THE COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
KEEP COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WE WILL SEE 90 TO
TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER, THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING THE KLBB OR KPVW TERMINALS THIS EVENING. LOW CIGS
WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ANY TERMINAL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01
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