113
FXUS64 KLUB 161721
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1221 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE FORECAST AREA FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM
WEDNESDAY.
- COLD FRONT THURSDAY WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
A WARMER TUESDAY REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. ON THE UPPER LEVELS, A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH SITS OVER NORTHEASTERN CONUS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE
SITS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA SITTING
BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER DISTURBANCES, FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. THICKNESS INCREASES AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 90S ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CO AND NORTHERN NM
WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN BOUNDARY
REACHING PARTS OF OUR WESTERN ZONES. CAMS HAVE BACKED OFF QUITE A
BIT ON STORMS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. HOWEVER, SLIGHT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY, THERE
REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. NBM CAME IN WITH VERY
LOW POPS, THEREFORE SLIGHT CHANCE WAS MANUALLY ADDED ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON THE CAPROCK. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. HOWEVER, A LLJ OF 40-45 MPH
FILLING IN OVERHEAD COULD SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING IN PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE A STORM OR
TWO ON THE CAPROCK, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH TO
NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE SEEMS TO BE MODEST LOW-TO-
MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE
QUIET WITH MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO MID 70S
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A HOT ONE. UPPER FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THE UPPER RIDGING TO THE WEST WILL SLIGHTLY
EXPAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THICKNESS INCREASES
FROM THE UPPER RIDGING AS WELL AS BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL BRING HEAT ADVISORY TEMPERATURES (105-110 DEGREES)
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, THE SOUTH PLAINS, AND ROLLING PLAINS
FROM 1 PM UNTIL 9 PM WEDNESDAY. MAKE SURE TO LIMIT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER IF YOU ARE REQUIRED TO BE
OUTSIDE DURING THIS HEAT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
LUCKILY, THE HOT TEMPERATURES DO NOT CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. ON THE UPPER
LEVELS, A TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY,
PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME, A LEE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS. CAMS AND
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN BORDER OF
OUR CWA BY SUNRISE. THE SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SLOW IT
DOWN AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL GIVE US A
LARGE SPREAD OF HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER
80S WHILE AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL SEE HEAT
ADVISORY TEMPERATURES (105-110 DEGREES) AGAIN. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
MOST LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
STORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY WITH DECENT MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH PWATS UP TO 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER, SUBSIDENCE FROM THE PERSISTENT
UPPER RIDGING MAY HINDER ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE,
CONFIDENCE ON ANY STORMS DEVELOPING THURSDAY OR FRIDAY IS LOW AT THE
MOMENT. UPPER RIDGING IN COMBINATION WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BRING AROUND HEAT ADVISORY LEVEL TEMPERATURES AGAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WE MAY SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ021>044.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...51
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