345
FXUS64 KLUB 171119
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
619 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 616 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS ON WEDNESDAY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM.
- COOLING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT, WITH SOME
STORM CHANCES.
- HEAT RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF STORM CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
AFTER NEAR-NORMAL HIGHS ON TUESDAY, THE HEAT RATCHETS UP ANOTHER 10
TO 15 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AS WESTERLY WINDS FROM 850-700 MB ADVECT
A PLUME OF EVEN HOTTER AIR OUR WAY. THIS PROCESS WILL CREATE A MORE
DEFINITIVE DRYLINE BY MIDDAY THAT IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS; HOWEVER, WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND BROAD
SUBSIDENCE UNDER ANTICYCLONIC NW FLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS IS
NEAR ZERO EVEN AS TEMPERATURES SOAR TO 105 AND HIGHER. THE LATEST
FORECAST HAS A FEW LOCALES IN GARZA COUNTY REACHING 110-112 DEGREES,
BUT THIS IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING. THE DRYLINE RETREATS ONTO THE CAPROCK WEDNESDAY EVENING
AHEAD OF MILD AND MUGGY LOWS IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THURSDAY PRESENTS A CHALLENGE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AS A COLD FRONT
WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH OF I-40 IN THE TX PANHANDLE NOT LONG AFTER
DAYBREAK. BY NOON, THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO HAVE DEPARTED THE SOUTH
PLAINS ON THE HEELS OF A SURFACE LOW. OFF THE CAPROCK MEANWHILE, THE
FRONT SHOULD SLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS DEEPER MOISTURE AND STEADY
SOUTHERLY BREEZES NORTHEAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A SHARP GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES, PERHAPS NEAR 110
IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WITH UPPER 80S IN THE FAR SW TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE NBM IS ON THE TOASTIER SIDE FOR MANY AREAS, WHICH
DOES TEND TO FIT THE BILL FOR COLD FRONTS THIS TIME OF YEAR, SO
WE'LL IGNORE THE COOLER MOS HIGHS AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS OF THE
TEMPERATURES, NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CLOCKING
IN AT THE MID-TO-UPPER 20 MPH RANGE, WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
30-35 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS IN OUR FAR NW ZONES UNDER A 35-KNOT LLJ
AND BEEFY 3-HR PRESSURE RISES OF 6-9 MB. STORM CHANCES WITH THE
FRONT ARE VERY UNLIKELY UNDER CONSIDERABLE CAPPING, BUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AS A
SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ OF 25-30 KNOTS BOOSTS ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. DESPITE ANEMIC WIND SHEAR, SIZABLE NON-
SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2500-4000 J/KG WOULD EASILY SUPPORT
SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP.
COOL EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL SPREAD MUGGIER AIR ONTO
THE CAPROCK UNDER RISING HEIGHTS TIED TO AN UPPER HIGH SETTING UP
OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN. GLOBAL GUIDANCE LOOKS OVERDONE WITH QPF
IN THIS PATTERN GIVEN A RIDGE AXIS ATOP THE AREA AND COOL, STABLE
LOW LEVELS, SO NBM'S POPS ON FRIDAY MAY NEED A DOWNWARD REVISION
IN LATER FORECASTS. THIS PATTERN GENERALLY FAVORS STORMS IN THE
UPSLOPE REGIME OF NEW MEXICO, YET WITH ONLY 5-10 KNOTS OF WESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW, THIS IS NOT A GOOD RECIPE FOR CONVECTION TO REACH
OUR AREA. THE UPPER HIGH AND RIDGE SCOOT EAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS
THE FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL AND BRINGS HOTTER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE PICTURE. A WEAK COLD FRONT EITHER LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY MAY
PARK NEARBY AND BRING US OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20G30KTS THIS MORNING
AT ALL TERMINALS, BEFORE SLIGHTLY DECREASING IN SPEEDS AROUND
10-15G25KTS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ021>044.
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...12
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