052
FXUS64 KLUB 171722
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1222 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS ON WEDNESDAY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM.
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS FROM 1 PM
TO 8 PM THURSDAY.
- A COLD FRONT THURSDAY WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND STORM
CHANCES BEFORE A WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
I AM SAD TO SAY THAT TODAY IS STILL ON TRACK TO BE A HOT ONE. AT THE
TIME OF PUBLISHING THIS DISCUSSION, SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
90S TO LOWER 100S ALREADY. UPPER RIDGING TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THICKNESS INCREASES DUE
TO THE UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
HEAT HIGHS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON TO TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS ON THE CAPROCK ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 103 TO 108 DEGREES AND OFF THE CAPROCK SHOULD REACH 106 TO 110
DEGREES. LUCKILY, IT SHOULD BE A DRY HEAT AS CURRENT DEWPOINTS OF
MID 50S TO UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE 30 TO 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM TODAY.
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL ALSO BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, HOWEVER A LEE SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPED
WEDNESDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, CAUSING VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ON THE
BRIGHT SIDE, AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. MODELS
INDICATE THE FRONT SHOULD REACH OUR NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA
AROUND SUNRISE. THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE SURFACE LOW WILL STALL THE
FRONT PART WAY THROUGH THE REGION RESULTING IN A WIDE SPREAD OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL
REACH MID TO UPPER 80S WHILE PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL
REACH HEAT ADVISORY LEVEL TEMPERATURES AGAIN. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR DICKENS, KING, GARZA, KENT, AND STONEWALL COUNTIES FROM 1
PM TO 9 PM THURSDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING
THE FROPA. DESPITE THERE NOT BEING MUCH IN TERMS OF FORCING,
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED FOR MUCH OF THE REGION,
BREAKING THE CAPPING INVERSION. CAMS INDICATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING, MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP
DESPITE THE LITTLE FORCING AND UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING GOOD
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES UP TO 4700 J/KG. MAIN HAZARDS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. WITH PWAT VALUES JUST UNDER 2
INCHES, COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THAT BEGAN LATER THURSDAY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS GOOD AS
COMPARED TO THURSDAY MAKING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LOW,
HOWEVER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEVERE ON
FRIDAY, CAN EXPECT TO BE ON THE LOWER END OF SEVERE WITH UP TO
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. HOWEVER, RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY IS MORE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOL FRIDAY
DUE TO A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR AS WELL AS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER, "COOLER" HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. TO MAKE THINGS WORSE, DEWPOINTS THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MAKING IT HUMID.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DWINDLE OUT BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE HOT AND DRY. UPPER RIDGING WILL
BEGIN TO FLATTEN, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK
INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS BY SUNDAY. STORM CHANCES AND "COOLER"
TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE TO START THE WORK WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT. GFS HAS A QUICKER PROGRESSION WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE CWA
LATE SUNDAY AROUND MIDNIGHT. ECMWF HAS A SLOWER PROGRESSION WITH THE
FRONT STALLING EARLY MONDAY MORNING JUST BEFORE IT REACHES THE
NORTHERN CWA BORDER. THE SLOWER PROGRESSION WOULD RESULT IN A DRIER
AND HOTTER FORECAST COMPARED TO WHAT NBM CURRENTLY HAS. AS WE GET
CLOSER TO MONDAY, MODELS ARE EXPECTED TO BETTER ALIGN WITH THE
FRONTAL PROGRESSION. UNTIL THEN, CAN EXPECT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. CHECK DENSITY ALTITUDE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ021>044.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ037-038-
042>044.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...51
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