619
FXUS64 KLUB 180525
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1225 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
- COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY, BRINGING STORM CHANCES TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM THURSDAY FOR
THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND, WITH POTENTIAL STORM CHANCES
RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES TO COME DOWN FROM HIGHS WELL IN THE TRIPLE-DIGITS
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BRING A SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. DESPITE
INSTABILITY NEAR 5000 J/KG DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL REMAIN QUITE CAPPED THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL BE COOLER IN THE NEAR 80 FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE
AND 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM WHERE HIGHS MAY EXCEED 105. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN CAPPED INTO THE EVENING, HOWEVER PWATS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES OFF THE CAPROCK WITH AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY STAYING PRESENT. FORCING WILL BE LACKING, HOWEVER THESE
OTHER PARAMETERS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. CAMS APPEAR MOST AGGRESSIVE OFF THE CAPROCK ALIGNING WITH
THE GREATEST MOISTURE. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE, PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, BRINGING RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING, WITH AGAIN A FEW
POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY SHOULD HELP BRING AN END TO THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION OF THE PREVIOUS DAYS. A RELATIVELY STRONG
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER ASSOCIATED STORMS SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND HIGHS WILL RETURN TO
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGHS. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BRING DAILY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS OR IMPACTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WHILE
SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-15KTS. BY
DAYBREAK, A FROPA WILL BEGIN SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO KCDS AND KPVW
WHERE WINDS WILL BACK OUT OF THE NORTH BECOMING GUSTY AROUND
20-25G30KTS. THE FROPA LOOKS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO KLBB AROUND
MID-MORNING WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY, MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS FILLING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. HOWEVER WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE WILL OPT TO JUST
HEDGE TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL RATHER THAN A CONFIDENT TAF MENTION.
WILL RE-EVALUATE THE THREAT IN THE NEXT TAF CYCLE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ037-038-042>044.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...12
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