495
FXUS64 KLUB 181726
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1219 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, SOME SEVERE, POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
- HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM THURSDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
- HOT THIS WEEKEND WITH DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCE RETURNING
MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY. CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE FRONT PART WAY THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA AS A
SURFACE LOW HAS SHIFTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA BORDER. AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSED THROUGH THE REGION, A LOW STRATUS LAYER HAS FILLED IN
BEHIND IT WITH CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING THE CLOUD DECK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION ALREADY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
RESULTING IN A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. CURRENT TEMPERATURES OF LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY WARM THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED UPPER
90S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH TRIPLE
DIGITS AGAIN. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM WITH TEMPERATURES REACH 105 TO 109 DEGREES.
MODELS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING. IT WILL DEPEND ON THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW. IN THE MEAN TIME,
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATER THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
OFF THE CAPROCK. WITH CURRENT WATER VAPORY IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER
RIDGING ALOFT, ANY FORCING TO AIDE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE SURFACE BASE. DESPITE THE LITTLE FORCING, MODELS INDICATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFF THE CAPROCK THIS
EVENING AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED AND ERODE THE CAPPING
INVERSION BEFORE EXPANDING WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ABLE TO DEVELOP, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY VALUES OF 4000 TO 5000 J/KG. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS UP
TO 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. WITH PWAT VALUES UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES, WE
COULD SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING. CAMS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BEFORE EXITING QUICKLY TO
THE EAST. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL BE WHERE THE MCS
DEVELOPS AS WELL AS ALONG EASTERN ZONES OF THE CWA.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
DWINDLES LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE REST OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE COLD FRONT AS
WELL AS LINGERING CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. DESPITE THE "COOLER"
TEMPERATURES, DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S, THEREFORE CAN EXPECT
A HUMID FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH THE RETURN OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY EVENING OVER NORTHWESTERN ZONES OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO EARLY IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD THROUGH NM WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN
EDGE CLIPPING PORTIONS ON THE CAPROCK. CAMS ARE INDICATING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN NM
WITH THE TROUGH BEFORE EXPANDING EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR CWA BEFORE
CROSS THE BORDER OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG WITH MODELS CLEARING STORMS OUT AROUND MIDNIGHT. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING
GOOD INSTABILITY WITH CAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG. ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS UP TO 65 MPH.
ONCE THOSE STORMS CLEAR THE REGION, THE REST OF THE WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY. UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ALOFT OVER SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. HEIGHT AND THICKNESS INCREASES DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGING
WILL WARM TEMPERATURES AGAIN. TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY WITH SOME AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS SEEING HEAT ADVISORY LEVEL TEMPERATURES (105-110 DEGREES). WE
WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AND THE RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING
THE FRONT. CHANCES ARE EXPECTED EVERYDAY THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AS
MULTIPLE PASSING UPPER SHORTWAVES PROLONG STORM POTENTIAL. AT THE
MOMENT, SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, THAT COULD CHANGE FOR FUTURE FORECASTS. DAILY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RETURN OF TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS AND MVFR CIGS TO ALL TAF SITES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. AREAS NEAR THE
KLBB TERMINAL MAY LIFT JUST ABOVE MVFR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE UNTIL MID MORNING ON FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGHEST CHANCES AT KCDS. NO MENTION OF STORMS
WERE MADE IN THE KLBB AND KPVW TERMINALS DUE TO TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ037-038-042>044.
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page