217
FXUS64 KLUB 241726
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, ROLL IN FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHEST CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EVERYDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
AFTER THIS EVENING'S ACTIVITY COMPLETELY DISSIPATES, THERE IS NOT
ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH,
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN ABYSMAL SO CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH IN A CONVECTIVE FREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER FAR WEST TEXAS WILL MAKE A SLIGHT
JOG TO THE SOUTHWEST LOWERING HEIGHTS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. DESPITE THE LOWER HEIGHTS, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AGAIN WITH UPPER 90S IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND LOWER 100S ELSEWHERE. A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG OUT AROUND THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THE DAYTIME ON WEDNESDAY. UPSLOPE WINDS WILL
FAVOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW
MEXICO DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEST TO NORTHWEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL FAVOR THIS CONVECTION DRIFTING INTO WEST TEXAS AFTER
00Z ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. IT IS UNKNOWN IF OR HOW THIS BOUNDARY
WILL PLAY INTO THE CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS MOVING EAST WILL BE MOVING INTO A
MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH STRONGER
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY
WEAK WITH WINDS ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-40KT FROM THE MID TO
UPPER TROPOSPHERE. A FEW STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS UPWARDS OF 70MPH GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
THE HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
FORECAST WITH POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY LEVEL TEMPERATURES BY THE
WEEKEND. MULTIPLE PASSING UPPER SHORTWAVES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGING
MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK SHIFTING TO MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
DESPITE THE FLATTENING UPPER RIDGING, THICKNESS INCREASES AND
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW EACH AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES, WILL MOST LIKELY SEE AT THE LEAST A HEAT ADVISORY
BEGINNING FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY AS AN EMBEDDED UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BEFORE EXPANDING INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ANOTHER PASSING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING. OVER THE WEEKEND, FLOW
ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER RIDGING FINALLY
PUSHES EASTWARD OVER THE GULF STATES AND AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. DESPITE THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW,
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
THE LOW CLOUD CEILINGS NEAR KCDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED FOR THE DAY.
SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF KCDS, HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING NEAR KLBB AND KPVW. MODELS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DYING BEFORE
REACHING EITHER TERMINAL, THEREFORE HAVE PUT VCTS IN TAF.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUSTAINING
AND IMPACTING BOTH TERMINALS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE, HOWEVER COULD SEE SOME ROUGE WIND GUSTS FROM NEARBY
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED NEAR KCDS.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...10
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