890
FXUS64 KLUB 242318
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
618 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING, BRINGING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM PLAINS TO
DIMMITT.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ON THE
CAPROCK.
- TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EVERYDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A REMNANT FRONT/OUTFLOW DRAPED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM MULESHOE TO
PADUCAH. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOWLY WASH OUT/LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WE EXPECT BACKED FLOW TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BY PEAK
HEATING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THIS, UPPER-LEVEL LIFT
WILL BE LACKING THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE FORECAST AREA LOCATED
IN-BETWEEN SHORTWAVES IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THUS,
OTHER THAN SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE WE AREN'T LOOKING FOR ANY CI IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY IN OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH WE'LL NEED TO KEEP OUR EYES ON IT
JUST IN CASE. HOWEVER, UPSTREAM, THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW
WILL BE WORKING WITH A HOT AND MOIST AIRMASS TO KICK OFF THE NEXT
ROUND OF T-STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NM INTO FAR WEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO SEVERAL
LOOSELY ORGANIZED SEGMENTS THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND PANHANDLE AREAS THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY AND DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF THE PANHANDLE, BUT STILL SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND A LESSER/ISOLATED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH THE THREAT FOCUSED ON THE
FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS.
THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY MID-EVENING WHILE THE
WIND THREAT MAY LAST THROUGH LATE EVENING AS THE STORMS SLOWLY
PROGRESS TOWARD THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. SINCE THE STEERING FLOW
WILL BE PRETTY WEAK, A LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHWEST SOUTH
PLAINS IF A SLOW-MOVING MCS DEVELOPS ACROSS THAT AREA. THE STORMS
SHOULD FINALLY RUN OUT OF STEAM BY MIDNIGHT OR SO, AND WE SHOULD
BE LEFT WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE CORE OF PASSING
UPPER-LEVEL LIFT.
IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A "RINSE AND REPEAT" TYPE PATTERN THURSDAY AND
POSSIBLY FRIDAY AS WELL. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED
TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BE SHIFTING EAST, AS A LARGE, LONG-WAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THUS,
WE'LL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, BUT THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN THE GENERAL TREND OF HOT DAYS AND MILD NIGHTS WITH HIGHS
NEAR 100F FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON THE CAPROCK, AND 100F TO 105F IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS. IT APPEARS THAT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SHOULD DRAG
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY OUT OF NM LATE IN
THE DAY THURSDAY, SOME OF WHICH COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AND ON FRIDAY, WE MAY SEE A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOP ACROSS OUR AREA
WHICH COULD SET THE STAGE FOR AFTERNOON T-STORM DEVELOPMENT
LOCALLY INSTEAD OF TO THE WEST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOWLY
EVOLVING UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN, WITH WEST TEXAS CAUGHT IN-BETWEEN A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. INITIALLY, THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN S-SWERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER WEST TEXAS, FUNNELING SOME SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY, MAINLY
ON THE CAPROCK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE MEDIUM RANGE STARTS TO
DIVERGE, BUT THE GENERAL THEME IS THE UPPER RIDGE STARTING TO JUT
BACK TO THE WEST AND PUSHING THE MOISTURE PLUME WEST INTO NM, WITH
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA BY MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH THE
WESTERN COUNTIES MAY STILL HOLD ON TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
LEAKING OUT OF EASTERN NM IN THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURE-WISE,
HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED NEAR 99-100 DEGREES ON THE CAPROCK,
AND A LITTLE HOTTER IN THE ROLLING PLAINS, THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH A
SLIGHT COOLDOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK, LIKELY MORE EVIDENT ON THE
CAPROCK...FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE UPPER RIDGE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING APPROXIMATELY 100NM WSW OF KLBB AT 2315Z
WILL EXPAND AND MOVE ENE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS
EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE HAS THESE STORMS WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH
AND MOVE THROUGH THE I-27 CORRIDOR IN THE 02Z TO 06Z TIME FRAME.
HAVE OPTED FOR A TEMPO TSRA AT KLBB AND KPVW TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
STORMS WITH ERRATIC WIND DIRECTION AND POTENTIAL GUSTS EXCEEDING
40KTS. HAVE LEFT TSRA OUT OF KCDS, ALTHOUGH THUNDER IMPACTS NOT
ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE AFTER 06Z. VFR OTHERWISE WITH
VEERING WIND AFTER 12Z/25. JW
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...13
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