004
FXUS64 KLUB 251125
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
625 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
- STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MOST DAYS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THESE WILL TAPER OFF EARLY
THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO PARTLY-TO-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. SURFACE
FLOW THURSDAY WILL SWITCH TO SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY HELPING TO AGAIN
USHER IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A RELATIVELY POTENT UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND LOW- LEVEL JET WILL EJECT FROM THE ROCKIES BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION STARTING
AROUND THIS TIME AND TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.
AGAIN, MUCH OF THE THREAT SHOULD BE GENERALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AND TAPER OFF COMPLETELY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS
AGAIN THE TRIPLE-DIGITS. RATHER THAN POTENT UPPER WAVES
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ON THURSDAY, A MORE RIDGE-LIKE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF
COAST. DESPITE SOME MINOR UPPER WAVES AND ANOTHER RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET, OVERALL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE
SOMEWHAT LACKING. HOWEVER IT CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE CLOSEST TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND ALONG WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAY. HIGHS OFF THE CAPROCK MAY APPROACH
105 DEGREES. WINDS WILL BACK MORE TOWARDS A DUE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT IN THE LOW 100S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. WHILE OUR AREA MAY SEE SOME UPPER PACIFIC MOISTURE
ADVECTION BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE CAPPED
WITHOUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR
ANYTHING VERY WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN ADDITIONAL
STRONGER FETCH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO PUSH NORTH NORTHWARD
OVER THIS TIME FRAME. THIS MAY BRING ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES,
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLIGHTLY COOL ON THE CAPROCK
INTO THE MID 90S BY TUESDAY, BUT REMAIN AT OR NEAR TRIPLE-DIGITS ON
THE CAPROCK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN BREEZIER THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF CHANCES OF TS THIS EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS, SOME SEVERE.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...93
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