898
FXUS64 KLUB 251751
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1251 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS (SOME SEVERE) ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
LIKELY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A COOLING TREND BEGINS NEXT WEEK.
- STORM CHANCES CONTINUE EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST
NEXT TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IS CHARACTERIZED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANNING FROM BAJA CA TO THE TX GULF COAST, WITH
OUR AREA STILL SANDWICHED BETWEEN THIS AND AN ACTIVE BELT OF ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT TO OUR NORTH. THE TRAIN OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WITHIN
THIS ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, EXTENDING
OUR PERIOD OF RELATIVELY ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THE DAY HAS
BEGUN RATHER HUMID ONCE AGAIN WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 60S AS OF
NOON, BUT STRONG HEATING (TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 THIS AFTERNOON) AND
PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FACILITATE DEEP MIXING WITH
DEWPOINTS LIKELY FALLING INTO THE 50S WEST OF I-27 BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE TWO FAVORED MECHANISMS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY. FIRST, INITIALLY ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE NM STATE LINE
AFTER 4 PM AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
BEING REACHED IN A GENERALLY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE CAPROCK THROUGH EARLY EVENING,
POTENTIALLY EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AS IT DOES SO. OUR SECOND
MECHANISM FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL COME FARTHER TO OUR NORTH AS
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS BATCH OF STORMS TO SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH ITS OUTFLOW POSSIBLY
ENHANCING ONGOING STORMS FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION.
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP, IT IS NOT
CERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THEY WILL BE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IS
HIGHEST OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK, NORTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS, AND SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE WITH DECREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS
FARTHER SOUTH. GIVEN THE WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT AND RELATIVELY HIGH
CLOUD BASES, THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS
EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY UP TO 80 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY BY MIDNIGHT, BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED WEAKER STORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES, ESPECIALLY OFF
THE CAPROCK. ON FRIDAY, A SIMILAR SETUP WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH SOME STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLY
BECOMING SEVERE. THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ON
FRIDAY IS UNCERTAIN, BUT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND RETREAT A
BIT SOUTHWARD WHICH COULD BRING HIGHER STORM COVERAGE TO OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES COMPARED TO TODAY. HOWEVER, A DRIER NEAR-SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT MAY STILL END UP KEEPING COVERAGE RELATIVELY ISOLATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN PEAK NEAR 100 DEGREES ON FRIDAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, WITH A BIT COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S OVER THE
SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WELL TO OUR EAST BY
SATURDAY AND WILL BUILD QUICKLY OVER THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER WEST TX. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERHEAD OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FETCH OF MODIFIED PACIFIC MOISTURE IS
PULLED NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED OR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK IN
VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL DEEPEN DAILY NEAR THE NM
STATE LINE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN STORM CHANCES IS LOW ESPECIALLY
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING SPECIFICS
OF ANY DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT ARE CURRENTLY
UNRESOLVED. REGARDING TEMPERATURES, TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS STILL LOOK
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND
IS EXPECTED BEGINNING NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
VFR REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PRD. -TSRA
IS POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE TERMINALS AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z. EXPECTING 10-
15G20KTS FROM THE SW.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...28
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