836
FXUS64 KLUB 260517
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1217 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1208 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
- UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES NEXT WEEK.
- STORM CHANCES CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
MOST GUIDANCE AGAIN SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY MID-
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH. FORECAST CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S WILL LIKELY BE BREACHED ALONG THIS
SURFACE FEATURE WITH FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES.
THESE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BRING RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES
UNDER A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS WILL BRING A GREATER
THREAT FOR DOWNBURST WINDS AND A LESSER THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL UNDER
THESE CONDITIONS. THESE MIXED LAYER CAPES ARE PROGGED TO BE ON THE
ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG WITH FORECAST DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1200
J/KG. FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE WEAK LEADING TO
MUCH CONVECTION STRUGGLING TO BECOME ORGANIZED. THIS WILL FURTHER
PROMOTE DOWNBURST WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT WILL BE GENERATED FROM INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN FORM IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITHIN
A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SENT TOWARDS WEST
TEXAS MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKE WE OBSERVED
THURSDAY EVENING. IF STORMS DO PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS,
THEY MAY INTERACT WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, THIS
BOUNDARY MAY BE MASKED BY EXPECTED CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WELL TO OUR EAST BY
SATURDAY AND WILL BUILD QUICKLY OVER THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER WEST TX. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERHEAD OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FETCH OF MODIFIED PACIFIC MOISTURE IS
PULLED NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR ISOLATED OR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK IN
VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL DEEPEN DAILY NEAR THE NM
STATE LINE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN STORM CHANCES IS LOW ESPECIALLY
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING SPECIFICS
OF ANY DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT ARE CURRENTLY
UNRESOLVED. REGARDING TEMPERATURES, TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS STILL LOOK
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT A SLIGHT COOLING TREND
IS EXPECTED BEGINNING NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE TAF SITES WITH ONLY LIGHT
RAINFALL IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY. LOW CIGS MAY APPROACH KCDS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAF. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN AGAIN EXPECTED AT ANY TAF SITE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT TIMING AND COVERAGE IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THE MOMENT.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...01
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