099
FXUS64 KLUB 262313
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
613 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 605 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF THE REGION
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING, SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS.
- STORM CHANCES CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
VERY MODEST COOLDOWN NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS FLAT UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH, WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN STILL
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CAPROCK RESULTING
IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW, WITH TEMPERATURES SET TO REACH
THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED WITHIN A MOSTLY UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE, BUT
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY A RELATIVE LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
INITIAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE I-27 CORRIDOR. COVERAGE OF THESE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
RELATIVELY LOW DUE TO WHAT IS PROGGED TO BE A BIT DRIER SURFACE
AIRMASS COURTESY OF MORE ROBUST MIXING, BUT THIS WILL
SIMULTANEOUSLY RESULT IN HIGH DCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1200 J/KG WHICH
MAY RESULT IN WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH BENEATH ANY STRONGER STORM
CORES THAT DO DEVELOP. CLOSER TO SUNSET, A MODEST SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSIT OVER THE NM/CO
HIGH TERRAIN, LIKELY KICKING OFF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OUR
WEST AND NORTH. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRACK INTO
OUR REGION DIRECTLY, BUT OUTFLOW COLLISIONS VERY WELL MAY RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER IN THE EVENING, MAINLY OVER THE
CAPROCK. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD, WITH
A LESSER THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE A BIT PAST MIDNIGHT, WITH AN OTHERWISE VERY MILD
OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXPECTED.
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER OUR AREA. DESPITE THIS CHANGE, STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE AS A
RIBBON OF MID/UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE PIVOTS OVERHEAD, WITH
THE SURFACE PATTERN AGAIN FAVORING A GENERALLY UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS HIGHS PEAK IN THE
100-105 DEGREE RANGE. AS A RESULT, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER A REGION CENTERED NEAR THE I-27 CORRIDOR
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES AGAIN SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS ON SATURDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT THROUGH MOST
OF NEXT WEEK AS EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS DOWNSTREAM OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE WEST COAST.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR KEEPING A RELATIVELY SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER WEST TX. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE CAPROCK AND ALONG THE TX/NM
STATE LINE. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY IN THIS PATTERN
GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND ONLY MODERATE INSTABILITY, BUT AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EACH DAY ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY REMAIN A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY WEEK, BUT WILL FALL CLOSER TO AVERAGE DURING
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
TAFS VFR THROUGH 00Z/28. THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF -TSRA AT
ALL 3 LOCATIONS THRU 08Z OR SO, BUT PROBABILITY IS MUCH TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE ANY TYPE OF MENTION FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY
BREEZE OVERNIGHT PRECLUDES WS MENTION WITH WIND VEERING MORE SW
AFTER SUNRISE WITH G25 POSSIBLE AT KCDS. JW
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...13
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